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Estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data

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Author Info
Santos Silva, J.M.C.
Murteira, J.M.R.

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Abstract

This paper develops a count data model for credit scoring which allows the estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data. The main advantage of the proposed approach is that it permits a more efficient use of the data, including that for the most recent clients. Moreover, because the probability of default is specified as a function of the age of the contract, the model provides some information on the timing of the defaults. The model is based on the beta-binomial distribution, which is found to be particularly adequate for this purpose. A well-known dataset on personal loans is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 457-465
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Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:457-465

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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Related research
Keywords: Beta-binomial distribution Credit scoring Population drift;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Duration of Consumer Loans and Bank Lending Policy: Dormancy Versus Default Risk," Working Paper Series 70, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series 154, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Johansson, Per & Palme, Marten, 1996. "Do economic incentives affect work absence? Empirical evidence using Swedish micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 195-218, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1999. "Asymptotic Properties of Weighted M-Estimators for Variable Probability Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1385-1406, November.
  5. Dionne, Georges & Artis, Manuel & Guillen, Montserrat, 1996. "Count data models for a credit scoring system," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 303-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Enrico De Giorgi, 2002. "An Intensity Based Non-Parametric Default Model for Residential Mortgage Portfolios," Risk and Insurance 0209001, EconWPA, revised 09 Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  2. José Varejão & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Why Do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," CETE Discussion Papers 0310, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
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