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Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data

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Author Info
J. M. R. Murteira (Universidade de Coimbra)
Joao M. C. Santos Silva (Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa)

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Abstract

This paper develops a count data model for credit scoring which allows the estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data. The model is based on the beta-binomial distribution, which is found to be particularly adequate to describe this sort of data. A well known data set on personal loans granted by a Spanish bank is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1121.pdf
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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1121.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1121

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  1. Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and the Survival of Loans," Working Paper Series 154, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Johansson, Per & Palme, Marten, 1996. "Do economic incentives affect work absence? Empirical evidence using Swedish micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 195-218, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dionne, Georges & Artis, Manuel & Guillen, Montserrat, 1996. "Count data models for a credit scoring system," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 303-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Duration of Consumer Loans and Bank Lending Policy: Dormancy Versus Default Risk," Working Paper Series 70, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1999. "Asymptotic Properties of Weighted M-Estimators for Variable Probability Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1385-1406, November.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Enrico De Giorgi, 2002. "An Intensity Based Non-Parametric Default Model for Residential Mortgage Portfolios," Risk and Insurance 0209001, EconWPA, revised 09 Sep 2002. [Downloadable!]
  2. José Varejão & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Why Do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," CETE Discussion Papers 0310, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

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