Duration of Consumer Loans and Bank Lending Policy: Dormancy Versus Default Risk
AbstractA bank that lends money to a household faces two types of risk. Most commonly mentioned is the risk of a default. Hardly ever referred to is the risk of an early redemption of the loan - leading to dormancy. We model consumer loans' transition from an active to a dormant state and estimate a semi-parametric duration model with a data set consisting of 4,733 individuals who were granted credit by a Swedish lending institution between 1993 and 1995. We analyze the factors that determine the time to maturity on a loan and investigate the model's ability to match the maturities observed in the data. The model is used to evaluate loan applicants by their expected durations and - profits, and to derive the distribution of conditional expected durations and - profits for the loan portfolio. This enables us to draw some conclusions about the efficiency of bank lending policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 70.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Banking and Finance, 2001, pages 717-739.
Bank lending policy; Duration analysis; Semi-parametric methods; Dormancy; Cost-benefit analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Duration of consumer loans and bank lending policy: dormancy versus default risk," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 280, Stockholm School of Economics.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-01-22 (All new papers)
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- J. M. R. Murteira & Joao M. C. Santos Silva, 2000.
"Estimation of Default Probabilities Using Incomplete Contracts Data,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1121, Econometric Society.
- Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Murteira, J.M.R., 2009. "Estimation of default probabilities using incomplete contracts data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 457-465, June.
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
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