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A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources, and Generalized Duration

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  • Francis X. Diebold

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Lei Ji

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Canlin Li

    ()
    (Graduate School of Management, University of California)

Abstract

We assess and apply the term-structure model introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987) and re-interpreted by Diebold and Li (2003) as a modern three-factor model of level, slope and curvature. First, we ask whether the model is a member of the affine class, and we find that it is not. Hence the poor forecasting performance recently documented for affine term structure models in no way implies that our model will forecast poorly, which is consistent with Diebold and Li's (2003) finding that it indeed forecasts quite well. Next, having clarified the relationship between our three-factor model and the affine class, we proceed to assess its adequacy directly, by testing whether its level, slope and curvature factors do indeed capture systematic risk. We find that they do, and that they are therefore priced. Finally, confident in the ability of our three-factor model to capture the pricing relations present in the data, we proceed to explore its efficacy in bond portfolio risk management. Traditional Macaulay duration is appropriate only in a one-factor (level) context; hence we move to a three-factor generalized duration, and we show the superior performance of hedges constructed using it.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 06-017.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 09 Mar 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:06-017

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Keywords: Term structure; Yield curve; Factor model; Risk Management;

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  1. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
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  4. Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Leo Krippner, 2012. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," CAMA Working Papers 2012-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
  3. Gimeno, Ricardo & Nave, Juan M., 2009. "A genetic algorithm estimation of the term structure of interest rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2236-2250, April.

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