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A genetic algorithm estimation of the term structure of interest rates

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Author Info
Gimeno, Ricardo
Nave, Juan M.

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Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is a key instrument for financial research. It provides relevant information for pricing deterministic financial cash flows, it measures economic market expectations and it is extremely useful when assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions. However, it is not directly observable and needs to be estimated by smoothing asset pricing data through statistical techniques. The most popular techniques adjust parsimonious functional forms based on bond yields to maturity. Unfortunately, these functions, which need to be optimised, are highly non-linear which make them very sensitive to the initial conditions. In this context, this paper proposes the use of genetic algorithms to find the values for the initial conditions and to reduce the risk of false convergence, showing that stable parameters are obtained without imposing arbitrary restrictions.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 53 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (April)
Pages: 2236-2250
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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2009:i:6:p:2236-2250

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  1. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Banco de España Working Papers 0906, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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