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Testing the Effectiveness of Market-Based Controls: Evidence from the Experience of Japan with Short-Term Capital Flows in the 1970s

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  • Taro Esaka

    ()
    (Kobe City University of Foreign Studies)

  • Shinji Takagi

    ()
    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

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    Abstract

    The paper tests the effectiveness of marginal reserve requirements employed by the Japanese authorities in the 1970s to influence short-term capital flows, thereby contributing to the ongoing debate on the use of capital controls\market- or price-based ones in particular. While the case for using market-based controls almost entirely relies on the mixed evidence from the experience of Chile with unremunerated reserve requirements in the 1990s, testing for their effectiveness on the volume of inflows is hampered by the endogeneity of such a measure, which is typically imposed or intensified when inflows surge. We address this problem by applying the method of propensity score matching and find that an increase in marginal reserve requirements modestly reduced the volume of short-term capital inflows through non-resident free-yen accounts. The impact was not statistically significant, however, implying that the price elasticity of short-term capital flows was small. We conclude that market-based controls must be nearly prohibitive, perhaps combined with administrative measures, to be effective in a meaningful way.

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    File URL: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/1203.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number 12-03.

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    Length: 37 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1203

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    Web page: http://www.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/
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    Related research

    Keywords: market-based capital controls; price-based capital controls; effectiveness of capital controls; Japanese capital controls; propensity score matching;

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    1. Imbens, Guido W. & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2008. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," IZA Discussion Papers 3640, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2005. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-19, University of Oregon Economics Department.
      • Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bruno Coelho & Kevin Gallagher, 2010. "Capital Controls and 21st Century Financial Crises: Evidence from Colombia and Thailand," Working Papers wp213, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    4. Francisco Gallego & Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Capital Controls in Chile: Were They Effective?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 361-412 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt02c028gr, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Francisco Nadal-De Simone & Piritta Sorsa, 1999. "A Review of Capital Account Restrictions in Chile in the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 99/52, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. Cardenas, Mauricio & Barrera, Felipe, 1997. "On the effectiveness of capital controls: The experience of Colombia during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 27-57, October.
    9. Sascha O. Becker & Andrea Ichino, 2002. "Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(4), pages 358-377, November.
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