Public Spending on Health and Long-term Care: A new set of projections
AbstractThis paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections till 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from longterm care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A costcontainment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios respectively.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economic Policy Papers with number 6.
Date of creation: 26 Jun 2013
Date of revision:
public health expenditures; ageing populations; longevity; long-term care expenditures; demographic and non-demographic effects; projection methods;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2013-07-15 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-HEA-2013-07-15 (Health Economics)
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