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Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?

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Author Info
Peter Zweifel (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)
Stefan Felder (Institute for Social Medicine, Epidemiology and Health Economics, Otto von Guericke University, Magdeburg, Germany)
Markus Meiers (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)
Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between health care expenditure (HCE) and age, using longitudinal rather than cross-sectional data. The econometric analysis of HCE in the last eight quarters of life of individuals who died during the period 1983-1992 indicates that HCE depends on remaining lifetime but not on calendar age, at least beyond 65+. The positive relationship between age and HCE observed in cross-sectional data may be caused by the simple fact that at age 80, for example, there are many more individuals living in their last 2 years than at age 65. The limited impact of age on HCE suggests that population ageing may contribute much less to future growth of the health care sector than claimed by most observers. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Health Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 485-496
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Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:8:y:1999:i:6:p:485-496

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749

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  1. Bo[dieresis]s, Dieter & von Weizsa[dieresis]cker, Robert K., 1989. "Economic consequences of an aging population," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2-3), pages 345-354, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jochen Hartwig, 2006. "What Drives Health Care Expenditure? Baumol’s Model of ‘Unbalanced Growth’ Revisited," KOF Working papers 06-133, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Pammolli, Fabio & Riccaboni, Massimo & Magazzini, Laura, 2008. "The Sustainability of European Health Care Systems: Beyond Income and Ageing," MPRA Paper 16026, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ciaran O'Neill & Lindsay Groom & Anthony J. Avery & Daphne Boot & Karine Thornhill, 2000. "Age and proximity to death as predictors of GP care costs: results from a study of nursing home patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(8), pages 733-738.
  4. Layte, Richard, 2006. "An Analysis of the Impact of Age and Proximity of Death on Health Care Costs in Ireland," Papers HRBWP24, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Lukas Steinmann & Harry Telser & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Aging and Future Healthcare Expenditure: A Consistent Approach," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1041-1041. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Zweifel & Lukas Steinmann & Patrick Eugster, 2005. "The Sisyphus Syndrome in Health Revisited," International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 127-145, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christian Hagist & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2005. "Who's Going Broke? Comparing Growth in Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 11833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Edward Norton & Hua Wang & Sally Stearns, 2006. "Behavioral Implications of Out-of-Pocket Health Care Expenditures," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Special Issues, Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(S (specia), pages 3-11. [Downloadable!]
  10. Constantina Safiliou-Rothschild, 2009. "Are Older People Responsible for High Healthcare Costs?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(1), pages 57-64, 04. [Downloadable!]
  11. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth : reassessing the threat of ageing," Post-Print halshs-00181605_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Thomas E. Getzen, 2001. "Aging and health care expenditures: A comment on Zweifel, Felder and Meiers," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 175-177. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hugh Gravelle & Matthew Sutton & Stephen Morris & Frank Windmeijer & Alastair Leyland & Chris Dibben & Mike Muirhead, 2003. "Modelling supply and demand influences on the use of health care: implications for deriving a needs-based capitation formula," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(12), pages 985-1004. [Downloadable!]
  14. Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health-care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christian Salas & James P. Raftery, 2001. "Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(7), pages 669-671. [Downloadable!]
  16. Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Felder, 2004. "Life Expectancy and Health Care Expenditures: A New Calculation for Germany Using the Costs of Dying," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 452, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meier, 2001. "Reply to: econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(7), pages 673-674. [Downloadable!]
  18. Valerie Albouy & Laurent Davezies & Thierry Debrand, 2009. "Dynamic Estimation of Health Expenditure: A new approach for simulating individual expenditure," Working Papers DT20, IRDES institut for research and information in health economics, revised Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
  19. C. L. Chua & Alfons Palangkaraya & Jongsay Yong, 2009. "Hospital Competition, Technical Efficiency, and Quality," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  20. Karolin Becker & Peter Zweifel, 2005. "Cost Sharing in Health Insurance: An Instrument for Risk Selection?," Working Papers 0513, University of Zurich, Socioeconomic Institute. [Downloadable!]
  21. Carol Propper, 2001. "Expenditure on healthcare in the UK: a review of the issues," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 151-183, June. [Downloadable!]
  22. Luca Crivelli & Massimo Filippini & Ilaria Mosca, 2006. "Federalism and regional health care expenditures: an empirical analysis for the Swiss cantons," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 535-541. [Downloadable!]
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