Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis
AbstractThis paper contributes to the debate about the impact of population ageing on health care expenditure. Some health economists claim that the commonly presumed impact of population ageing is a "red herring". Based on empirical studies these authors conclude that proximity to death and not age per se matters. In projecting health care expenditure for Switzerland the present study provides evidence that proximity to death is of marginal importance. These projections suggest that population ageing is still the most important age-related cost-driver. Moreover, morbidity outweighs mortality as a factor of health-care expenditure. But most vital are non-demographic drivers such as medical progress. Thus, from the point of view of cost-benefit analysis one should even ignore costs of dying when projecting health care expenditure. Moreover, regressions might overestimate proximity to death due to systematic biases. Finally, ever-increasing health-care expenditure can be slowed down by appropriate policy measures.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26747.
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2009
health-care expenditure; population ageing; public health-care budget; proximity to death; morbidity;
Other versions of this item:
- Colombier, Carsten & Weber, Werner, 2009. "Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis," MPRA Paper 26712, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- W. M. T. Westerhout, 2006. "Does Ageing Call for a Reform of the Health Care Sector?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(1), pages 1-31, March.
- Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
- Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004.
"Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”,"
The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the "Red Herring"," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
- Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126.
- Dreger, C. & Reimers, H.E., 2005.
"Health Care Expenditures in OECD Countries: A Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis,"
International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies,
Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 5-20.
- Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2005. "Health Care Expenditures in OECD Countries: A Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1469, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- William C. Hsiao, 2000. "What Should Macroeconomists Know About Health Care Policy: A Primer," IMF Working Papers 00/136, International Monetary Fund.
- Hartwig, Jochen, 2008.
"What drives health care expenditure?--Baumol's model of 'unbalanced growth' revisited,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 603-623, May.
- Jochen Hartwig, 2006. "What Drives Health Care Expenditure? Baumol’s Model of ‘Unbalanced Growth’ Revisited," KOF Working papers 06-133, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Getzen, Thomas E., 2000. "Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 259-270, March.
- Christian Salas & James P. Raftery, 2001. "Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(7), pages 669-671.
- Friedrich Breyer & Stefan Felder, 2004.
"Life Expectancy and Health Care Expenditures: A New Calculation for Germany Using the Costs of Dying,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
452, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Breyer, Friedrich & Felder, Stefan, 2006. "Life expectancy and health care expenditures: A new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 178-186, January.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2004.
"The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending,"
NBER Working Papers
10737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The value of life and the rise in health spending," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Robert E Hall & Charles I Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72, 02.
- Peter S. Heller, 2007. "What Should Macroeconomists Know About Health Care Policy?," IMF Working Papers 07/13, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
- Melberg, Hans Olav & Sørensen, Jan, 2013. "How does end of life costs and increases in life expectancy affect projections of future hospital spending?," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2013:9, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme.
- Gregersen, Fredrik Alexander & Godager, Geir, 2013. "Hospital expenditures and the red herring hypothesis: Evidence from a complete national registry," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2013:3, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme.
- Vincenzo Atella & Valentina Conti, 2013. "The effect of age and time to death on health care expenditures: the Italian experience," CEIS Research Paper 267, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Nov 2013.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.