Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis
AbstractThis paper contributes to the debate about the impact of population ageing on health care expenditure. Some health economists claim that the commonly presumed impact of population ageing is a "red herring". Based on empirical studies these authors conclude that proximity to death and not age per se matters. In projecting health care expenditure for Switzerland the present study provides evidence that proximity to death is of marginal importance. These projections suggest that population ageing is still the most important age-related cost-driver. Moreover, morbidity outweighs mortality as a factor of health-care expenditure. But most vital are non-demographic drivers such as medical progress. Thus, from the point of view of cost-benefit analysis one should even ignore costs of dying when projecting health care expenditure. Moreover, regressions might overestimate proximity to death due to systematic biases. Finally, ever-increasing health-care expenditure can be slowed down by appropriate policy measures.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26747.
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2009
health-care expenditure; population ageing; public health-care budget; proximity to death; morbidity;
Other versions of this item:
- Colombier, Carsten & Weber, Werner, 2009. "Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis," MPRA Paper 26712, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2010.
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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