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Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?

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Author Info
Andreas Werblow (Faculty of Business Management and Economics, Technical University Dresden, Magdeburg, Germany)
Stefan Felder (Institute of Social Medicine and Health Economics, Otto-von-Guericke University, Magdeburg, Germany)
Peter Zweifel (Socioeconomic Institute, University of Zurich, Switzerland)

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Abstract

This paper revisits the debate on the 'red herring', viz. the claim that population ageing will not have a significant impact on health care expenditure (HCE). It decomposes HCE into seven components, includes both survivors and deceased individuals, and estimates a two-part model of the demand for health care services, using a large Swiss data set for 1999. It finds no or weak age effects on HCE for the components of HCE when proximity to death is controlled for, and points to differences between users and non-users of long-term care (LTC). For deceased non-users of LTC services, a falling age curve for all components of HCE except for inpatient care is observed, while survivors show a weak age effect in ambulatory and inpatient care once proximity to death is controlled for. As to surviving users of LTC services, their probability of incurring LTC expenses markedly increases in old age, while most of the components of their conditional HCE show a decreasing age profile. Thus, a 'school of red herrings' can be claimed to exist-with the possible exception of LTC, where ageing might matter regardless of proximity to death. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/hec.1213
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Health Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2007)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1109-1126
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:16:y:2007:i:10:p:1109-1126

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/5749

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth : reassessing the threat of ageing," Post-Print halshs-00181605_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Felder, Stefan & Meier, Markus & Schmitt, Horst, 2000. "Health care expenditure in the last months of life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 679-695, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the "Red Herring"," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Seshamani, Meena & Gray, Alastair M., 2004. "A longitudinal study of the effects of age and time to death on hospital costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 217-235, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Martin Schellhorn & Andreas E. Stuck & Christoph E. Minder & John C. Beck, 2000. "Health services utilization of elderly Swiss: evidence from panel data," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 533-545.
  6. Ciaran O'Neill & Lindsay Groom & Anthony J. Avery & Daphne Boot & Karine Thornhill, 2000. "Age and proximity to death as predictors of GP care costs: results from a study of nursing home patients," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(8), pages 733-738.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:ses:sisjes:2006-s-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. France Weaver & Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton & William Spector, 2009. "Proximity to death and participation in the long-term care market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 867-883. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kateřina Pavloková, 2009. "Time to death and health expenditure of the Czech health care system," Working Papers IES 2009/05, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lukas Steinmann & Harry Telser & Peter S. Zweifel, 2007. "Aging and Future Healthcare Expenditure: A Consistent Approach," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 10(2). [Downloadable!]
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