IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbrese/v68y2015i4p783-787.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang
  • Wang, David Han-Min
  • Wu, Kuo-Lun

Abstract

Considerable prior research argues that time to death, not population aging, explains the growth of healthcare expenditures. The objective of this study is to shed light on this debate by presenting new evidence on the red herring hypothesis. This study adopts quantile regression analysis to reexamine variations of the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures in Taiwan over the period 2005–2009. Findings show that population aging estimates decrease from positive to negative along quantiles for the whole sample and become insignificant across most quantiles for the subsample of people aged 65 and over. For whole sample and subsample of people aged 65 and over, proximity-to-death coefficients are significantly positive in most quantiles. Moreover, time-to-death estimates show a substantial upward trend towards date of death. In particular, quarters one and two prior to death produce a significant positive impact on healthcare expenditures at the highest healthcare expenditure quantiles. The new empirical evidence from this study provides a more complete picture of the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:4:p:783-787
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.11.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296314003828
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.11.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Felder, Stefan & Meier, Markus & Schmitt, Horst, 2000. "Health care expenditure in the last months of life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 679-695, September.
    2. David F. Bradford & Derrick A. Max, 1997. "Implicit Budget Deficits: The Case of a Mandated Shift to Community-Rated Health Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 11, pages 129-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
    4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John B. Jones, 2010. "Why Do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 39-75, February.
    5. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2008. "The Interaction of Public and Private Insurance: Medicaid and the Long-Term Care Insurance Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1083-1102, June.
    6. Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010. "Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
    7. Conley, Timothy G. & Galenson, David W., 1998. "Nativity and Wealth in Mid-Nineteenth-Century Cities," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 468-493, June.
    8. Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501, April.
    9. Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoglu, 2006. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in emerging markets: a reality check," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 101-128.
    10. France Weaver & Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton & William Spector, 2009. "Proximity to death and participation in the long‐term care market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 867-883, August.
    11. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1983. "Population Aging and Future Health Costs in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 9(2), pages 155-163, June.
    12. Thakur, Ramendra & Hsu, Sonya H.Y. & Fontenot, Gwen, 2012. "Innovation in healthcare: Issues and future trends," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 562-569.
    13. Wickstrom, Jannie & Serup-Hansen, Niels & Kristiansen, Ivar Sonbo, 2002. "Future health care costs--do health care costs during the last year of life matter?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-172, November.
    14. Mickael Bech & Terkel Christiansen & Ehsan Khoman & Jørgen Lauridsen & Martin Weale, 2011. "Ageing and health care expenditure in EU-15," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 12(5), pages 469-478, October.
    15. Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327, April.
    16. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496, September.
    17. Barer, Morris L. & Evans, Robert G. & Hertzman, Clyde & Lomas, Jonathan, 1987. "Aging and health care utilization: New evidence on old fallacies," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 851-862, January.
    18. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    19. Polder, Johan J. & Barendregt, Jan J. & van Oers, Hans, 2006. "Health care costs in the last year of life--The Dutch experience," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(7), pages 1720-1731, October.
    20. Wang, David Han-Min & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Liu, Hong-Quan, 2013. "Heterogeneous effect of high-tech industrial R&D spending on economic growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1990-1993.
    21. de Meijer C & Koopmanschap M & Bago d & Uva T & van Doorslaer E, 2009. "Time To Drop Time-To-Death? –Unravelling The Determinants of LTC Spending In The Netherlands," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 09/33, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    22. Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2004. "On the distribution and dynamics of health care costs," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 705-721.
    23. M. S. Marzouk, 1991. "Aging, Age-Specific Health Care Costs and the Future Health Care Burden in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 17(4), pages 490-506, December.
    24. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2011. "Heterogeneous effects of different factors on global ICT adoption," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1169-1173.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Secundo, Giustina & Riad Shams, S.M. & Nucci, Francesco, 2021. "Digital technologies and collective intelligence for healthcare ecosystem: Optimizing Internet of Things adoption for pandemic management," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 563-572.
    2. Wang, David Han-Min & Chen, Pei-Hua & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Hsiao, Chih-Yi, 2015. "The effects of corporate social responsibility on brand equity and firm performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2232-2236.
    3. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2015. "Forecasting ICT development through quantile confidence intervals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2295-2298.
    4. Audrey Tanguy-Melac & Dorian Verboux & Laurence Pestel & Anne Fagot-Campagna & Philippe Tuppin & Christelle Gastaldi-Ménager, 2021. "Evolution of health care utilization and expenditure during the year before death in 2015 among people with cancer: French snds-based cohort study," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(7), pages 1039-1052, September.
    5. Dal Mas, Francesca & Massaro, Maurizio & Rippa, Pierluigi & Secundo, Giustina, 2023. "The challenges of digital transformation in healthcare: An interdisciplinary literature review, framework, and future research agenda," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    2. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    3. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring Ageing, time-to-death & care costs for older people in Sweden," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 77470, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    4. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring - Ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2011:6, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    5. van Baal, Pieter H. & Wong, Albert, 2012. "Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 876-887.
    6. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    7. Norton, E.C., 2016. "Health and Long-Term Care," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 951-989, Elsevier.
    8. Atella, Vincenzo & Conti, Valentina, 2014. "The effect of age and time to death on primary care costs: The Italian experience," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 10-17.
    9. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2014. "A new quantile regression forecasting model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 779-784.
    10. Mauro Laudicella & Paolo Li Donni & Kim Rose Olsen & Dorte Gyrd‐Hansen, 2022. "Age, morbidity, or something else? A residual approach using microdata to measure the impact of technological progress on health care expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1184-1201, June.
    11. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    12. Maciej Lis, 2015. "Red Herring in the Vistula River: Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure," IBS Working Papers 13/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    13. Fredrik Gregersen, 2014. "The impact of ageing on health care expenditures: a study of steepening," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(9), pages 979-989, December.
    14. Melberg, Hans Olav & Sørensen, Jan, 2013. "How does end of life costs and increases in life expectancy affect projections of future hospital spending?," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2013:9, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    15. Stefan Felder, 2013. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Healthcare Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 03-06, 04.
    16. Silvia Balia & Rinaldo Brau, 2014. "A Country For Old Men? Long‐Term Home Care Utilization In Europe," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1185-1212, October.
    17. de Meijer, Claudine & Koopmanschap, Marc & d' Uva, Teresa Bago & van Doorslaer, Eddy, 2011. "Determinants of long-term care spending: Age, time to death or disability?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 425-438, March.
    18. Howdon, Daniel & Rice, Nigel, 2018. "Health care expenditures, age, proximity to death and morbidity: Implications for an ageing population," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 60-74.
    19. Polder, Johan J. & Barendregt, Jan J. & van Oers, Hans, 2006. "Health care costs in the last year of life--The Dutch experience," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(7), pages 1720-1731, October.
    20. Claudia Geue & Andrew Briggs & James Lewsey & Paula Lorgelly, 2014. "Population ageing and healthcare expenditure projections: new evidence from a time to death approach," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(8), pages 885-896, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:4:p:783-787. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.