IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbrese/v68y2015i11p2295-2298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting ICT development through quantile confidence intervals

Author

Listed:
  • Huarng, Kun-Huang
  • Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang

Abstract

Regression is a common method to calculate relationships between variables. Quantile regression extends the calculation to the coefficients of various quantiles, providing a more complete overview. In addition, quantile forecasting models forecast coefficients. This study proposes a new algorithm to calculate the quantile confidence intervals of the in-sample data to forecast the coefficients of the out-of-sample data. The algorithm analyzes ICT data for 78 countries between 1999 and 2010. Results show that the algorithm provides valid forecasting results and outperforms previous studies. These quantile confidence intervals can also forecast the independent variables' impact trends on the dependent variable. The algorithm is applicable to different domains.

Suggested Citation

  • Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2015. "Forecasting ICT development through quantile confidence intervals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2295-2298.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:11:p:2295-2298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.06.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296315002428
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.06.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martins, Pedro S. & Pereira, Pedro T., 2004. "Does education reduce wage inequality? Quantile regression evidence from 16 countries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 355-371, June.
    2. Juan M. Gallego & Luis H. Gutiérrez & Sang H. Lee, 2015. "A firm-level analysis of ICT adoption in an emerging economy: evidence from the Colombian manufacturing industries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 24(1), pages 191-221.
    3. Vicente, Maria Rosalia & Lopez, Ana Jesus, 2006. "Patterns of ICT diffusion across the European Union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 45-51, October.
    4. Glòria Estapé-Dubreuil & Consol Torreguitart-Mirada, 2014. "Firm-Level Evidence of ICT Adoption among SMEs of the Social Economy in Spain," Journal of Electronic Commerce in Organizations (JECO), IGI Global, vol. 12(1), pages 16-34, January.
    5. Huarng, Kun-Huang, 2010. "Essential research in technology management," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 451-453, May.
    6. José Mata & José A. F. Machado, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465.
    7. Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas, 2008. "Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly misspecified hidden Markov models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 566-586.
    8. Gilbert W. Bassett Jr. & Hsiu-Lang Chen, 2001. "Portfolio style: Return-based attribution using quantile regression," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 293-305.
    9. Taylor, James W., 2007. "Forecasting daily supermarket sales using exponentially weighted quantile regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(1), pages 154-167, April.
    10. Huarng, Kun-Huang, 2015. "Configural theory for ICT development," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 748-756.
    11. Wong, Poh-Kam, 2002. "ICT production and diffusion in Asia Digital dividends or digital divide?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 167-187, June.
    12. Grigori Feiguine & Julia Solovjova, 2014. "ICT investment and internationalization of the Russian economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 231-250, February.
    13. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2014. "A new quantile regression forecasting model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 779-784.
    14. Huarng, Kun-Huang, 2011. "A comparative study to classify ICT developments by economies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1174-1177.
    15. Yuzhi Cai & Julian Stander & Neville Davies, 2012. "A new Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive time series model estimation and forecasting," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 684-698, July.
    16. Seo, Joo Hwan & Perry, Vanessa G. & Tomczyk, David & Solomon, George T., 2014. "Who benefits most? The effects of managerial assistance on high- versus low-performing small businesses," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 2845-2852.
    17. Koenker R. & Geling O., 2001. "Reappraising Medfly Longevity: A Quantile Regression Survival Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 458-468, June.
    18. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    19. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
    20. Wang, David Han-Min & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Liu, Hong-Quan, 2013. "Heterogeneous effect of high-tech industrial R&D spending on economic growth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1990-1993.
    21. Wu, Feng-Shang & Chu, Wen-Lin, 2010. "Diffusion models of mobile telephony," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 497-501, May.
    22. Ronald Kumar & Madhukar Singh, 2014. "Role of health expenditure and ICT in a small island economy: a study of Fiji," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2295-2311, July.
    23. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2011. "Heterogeneous effects of different factors on global ICT adoption," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1169-1173.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huarng, Kun-Huang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2014. "A new quantile regression forecasting model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(5), pages 779-784.
    2. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2011. "Heterogeneous effects of different factors on global ICT adoption," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1169-1173.
    3. Paniagua, Jordi & Figueiredo, Erik & Sapena, Juan, 2015. "Quantile regression for the FDI gravity equation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1512-1518.
    4. Huarng, Kun-Huang, 2015. "Configural theory for ICT development," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 748-756.
    5. Wang, David Han-Min & Chen, Pei-Hua & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Hsiao, Chih-Yi, 2015. "The effects of corporate social responsibility on brand equity and firm performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2232-2236.
    6. Francisca Lívia S. Menezes & Ronaldo A. Arraes & Andrei G. Simonass, 2014. "Earning Differentials By Occupational Categories And Discrimination: Gender, Race And Regions," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 214, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Carrillo, Paul & Yezer, Anthony, 2009. "Alternative measures of homeownership gaps across segregated neighborhoods," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 542-552, September.
    8. Muhammad Aslam & Arslan Saeed & Saima Altaf, 2014. "Median Regression Analysis of Gender-wise Income Gap in Punjab, Pakistan," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 1(1), pages 15-19.
    9. Javier Alejo & Maria Florencia Gabrielli & Walter Sosa-Escudero, 2014. "The Distributive Effects of Education: An Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 29(1), pages 53-76, April.
    10. Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang & Wang, David Han-Min & Wu, Kuo-Lun, 2015. "Reexamining the red herring effect on healthcare expenditures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 783-787.
    11. Andreas Behr & Ulrich Pötter, 2009. "Analysing Wage Differences between the USA and Germany Using Proportional Hazards Models," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(2), pages 319-347, June.
    12. Biagetti, Marco & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2009. "Wage inequality and returns to schooling in Europe: a semi-parametric approach using EU-SILC data," MPRA Paper 19060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. McMillen, Daniel P., 2008. "Changes in the distribution of house prices over time: Structural characteristics, neighborhood, or coefficients?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 573-589, November.
    14. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Kaspar Wuthrich, 2020. "Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression," Papers 2009.00436, arXiv.org.
    15. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2010. "Specification tests of parametric dynamic conditional quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 209-221, November.
    16. Huarng, Kun-Huang, 2011. "A comparative study to classify ICT developments by economies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1174-1177.
    17. Bakry, Walid & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Farouk, Sherine & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does it hurt or help? Revisiting the effects of ICT on economic growth and energy consumption: A nonlinear panel ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 597-617.
    18. Zheng Fang & Chris Sakellariou, 2011. "A Case of Sticky Floors: Gender Wage Differentials in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 35-54, March.
    19. Chen, Yi-Min & Yang, De-Hsin & Lin, Feng-Jyh, 2013. "Does technological diversification matter to firm performance? The moderating role of organizational slack," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(10), pages 1970-1975.
    20. Tiffany Yu & Michael Willoughby, 2012. "Innovations in service business. An introduction to the special issue from the Global Entrepreneurship and Services Conference, Taiwan, 2011," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 6(4), pages 405-409, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:11:p:2295-2298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.