Diffusion models of mobile telephony
AbstractGrowth models are applicable to mobile telephony diffusion. Although cross-sectional performance comparisons of models are numerous, varying stages of the S-shaped diffusion curve have not been analyzed by longitudinal studies. This study determines whether the best model applies to an entire diffusion life span. Mobile telephone subscriber data for Taiwan during 1988-2007 are analyzed to compare the performance of three popular diffusion models and one well-known forecasting model--the Gompertz, Logistic, Bass, and time-series autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the Gompertz model outperforms the other models before diffusion take-off, and the Logistic model is superior after inflection and over the aggregate range of the diffusion. Network externalities are the dynamics of the Logistic model and account for its excellence. This longitudinal study is the first to present empirical evidence indicating that the appropriate diffusion model for mobile telephony is stage-dependent, complementing the case dependency of the appropriate diffusion model demonstrated by cross-sectional studies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Business Research.
Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres
Mobile communications Mobile telephony Diffusion model Forecasting;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gruber, H. & Verboven, F.L., 1998.
"The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union,"
Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research
1998-138, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 2001. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 577-588, March.
- Gruber, Harald & Verboven, Frank, 1999. "The Diffusion of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1986. "Technology Adoption in the Presence of Network Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 822-41, August.
- Young, Peg & Ord, J. Keith, 1989. "Model selection and estimation for technological growth curves," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 501-513.
- Geroski, P. A., 2000.
"Models of technology diffusion,"
Research Policy, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
- Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "Models of Technology Diffusion," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 2146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Minkyu Lee & Youngsang Cho, 2007. "The diffusion of mobile telecommunications services in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 477-481.
- Rouvinen, Petri, 2004.
"Diffusion of Digital Mobile Telephony: Are Developing Countries Different?,"
Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER)
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Rouvinen, Petri, 2006. "Diffusion of digital mobile telephony: Are developing countries different?," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 46-63, February.
- Rouvinen, Petri, 2004. "Diffusion of Digital Mobile Telephony - Are Devoloping Countries Different?," Discussion Papers, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy 901, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 1995. "Forecasting with growth curves: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-215, June.
- Shy,Oz, 2001.
"The Economics of Network Industries,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521800952, 9.
- Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
- Liikanen, Jukka & Stoneman, Paul & Toivanen, Otto, 2004. "Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case of mobile phones," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1137-1154, November.
- Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June.
- Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2011. "Heterogeneous effects of different factors on global ICT adoption," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 1169-1173.
- Qian, Lixian & Soopramanien, Didier, 2014. "Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 1226-1232.
- Thakur, Ramendra & Hsu, Sonya H.Y. & Fontenot, Gwen, 2012. "Innovation in healthcare: Issues and future trends," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(4), pages 562-569.
- Lin, Chiun-Sin, 2013. "Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 207-213.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.