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On the distribution and dynamics of health care costs

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Author Info

  • Eric French

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, USA)

  • John Bailey Jones

    (Department of Economics, University at Albany, State University of New York, USA)

Abstract

Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey and the Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old survey, we estimate the stochastic process that determines both the distribution and dynamics of health care costs. We find that the data-generating process for log health costs is well represented as the sum of a white noise process and a highly persistent AR(1) process. We also find that the innovations to this process can be modelled with a normal distribution that has been adjusted to capture the risk of catastrophic health care costs. Simulating this model, we find that in any given year 0.1% of households receive a health cost shock with a present value of at least $125,000. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.790
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2004-v19.6/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 705-721

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:6:p:705-721

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  1. Matthew J. Eichner & Mark B. McClellan & David A. Wise, 1996. "Insurance or Self-Insurance?: Variation, Persistence, and Individual Health Accounts," NBER Working Papers 5640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John M. Abowd & David Card, 1986. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," NBER Working Papers 1832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
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