Some notes on how to catch a red herring - Ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden
AbstractIn this paper we test the 'red herring' hypothesis for expenditures on long-term care. The main contribution of this paper is that we assess the 'red herring' hypothesis using an aggregated measure that allows us to control for entering the final period of life on the individual level. In addition we implement a model that allows for age specific time-to-death (TTD) effects on Long Term Care. We also account for the problem that mortality, and therefore TTD, are themselves influenced by care expenditure. For our analysis we use administrative data from the Swedish statistical office. In contrast to many previous empirical studies, we are able to use the entire population for estimation instead of a sample. Our identification strategy is based on fixed effects estimation and the instrumental variable approach to achieve exogenous variation in TTD. Our results indicate that although time-to-death is a relevant indicator for long term care, age itself seems to be much more important for the projection of long-term care expenditure.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme in its series HERO On line Working Paper Series with number 2011:6.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 08 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: HERO / Institute of Health Management and Health Economics P.O. Box 1089 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 2307 5309
Fax: 2307 5310
Web page: http://www.hero.uio.no/eng.html
More information through EDIRC
ageing; mortality; long term care expenditures;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-14 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas & Zweifel, Peter, 2010.
"Do red herrings swim in circles? Controlling for the endogeneity of time to death,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-212, March.
- Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow & Peter Zweifel, 2008. "Do Red Herrings Swim in Circles? – Controlling for the Endogeneity of Time to Death," Ruhr Economic Papers 0073, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Mickael Bech & Terkel Christiansen & Ehsan Khoman & Jørgen Lauridsen & Martin Weale, 2011. "Ageing and health care expenditure in EU-15," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 469-478, October.
- Baoping Shang & Dana Goldman, 2008. "Does age or life expectancy better predict health care expenditures?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 487-501.
- Meena Seshamani & Alastair Gray, 2004. "Ageing and health-care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 303-314.
- Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton, 2004. "Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 315-327.
- Gardner, Jonathan & Oswald, Andrew, 2004. "How is mortality affected by money, marriage, and stress?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1181-1207, November.
- Denis Gerstorf & Nilam Ram & Guy Mayraz & Mira Hidajat & Ulman Lindenberger & Gert G. Wagner & Jürgen Schupp, 2010. "Late-Life Decline in Well-Being across Adulthood in Germany, the UK, and the US: Something Is Seriously Wrong at the End of Life," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 286, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
- Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Markus Meiers, 1999. "Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(6), pages 485-496.
- de Meijer C & Koopmanschap M & Bago d & Uva T & van Doorslaer E, 2009. "Time To Drop Time-To-Death? –Unravelling The Determinants of LTC Spending In The Netherlands," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 09/33, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
- Ulf-G. Gerdtham & Douglas Lundin & Maria Sáez-Martí, 2005. "The ageing of society, health services provision and taxes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 519-537, 09.
- Norton, Edward C., 2000. "Long-term care," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 955-994 Elsevier.
- Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2012.
"Health Care Expenditures and Longevity: Is there a Eubie Blake Effect?,"
Research Papers in Economics
2012-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
- Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2012. "Health Care Expenditures and Longevity: Is There a Eubie Blake Effect?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1226, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anbjørg Kolaas).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.