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Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: Some further considerations

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  • van Baal, Pieter H.
  • Wong, Albert
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    Abstract

    Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981–2007. Forecasts for the years 2008–2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models’ forecasts of HCE for the 2008–2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Health Economics.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 876-887

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:31:y:2012:i:6:p:876-887

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505560

    Related research

    Keywords: Time to death; Health care expenditures; Forecasting;

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    Cited by:
    1. Melberg, Hans Olav & Sørensen, Jan, 2013. "How does end of life costs and increases in life expectancy affect projections of future hospital spending?," HERO On line Working Paper Series 2013:9, Oslo University, Health Economics Research Programme.
    2. Martin Karlsson & Florian Klohn, 2014. "Testing the red herring hypothesis on an aggregated level: ageing, time-to-death and care costs for older people in Sweden," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 533-551, June.

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