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Taking Stock of the Credit Crunch: Implications for Development Finance and Global Governance

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  • Andrew Mold
  • Sebastian Paulo
  • Annalisa Prizon

Abstract

This paper examines how the different forms of development finance for low-income countries are likely to be affected by the global financial crisis, principally through reductions in remittances, aid flows and FDI. It argues that the channels of transmission of the crisis for particular countries will not necessarily be obvious ones. Despite initiatives to lower the debt burden for low-income countries over recent years, the crisis will also have consequences for the external debt sustainability as they struggle with falling export revenues, currency depreciations and rising fiscal deficits. In other senses, however, the crisis represents an opportunity for reform. With regard to aid, for instance, it is suggested that a hard-budget constraint on aid budgets may help focus attention on increasing aid efficiency. Moreover, it is argued that the prospects for the developing world depend not only on how the financial crisis evolves in the OECD countries, but also increasingly on how growth holds up in the rest of the developing world. In this sense, the paper discusses the possibility that South-South linkages are strengthened in the wake of this crisis. Finally, the paper looks at the global governance issues that arise from the crisis. In many areas, existing policy frameworks have been discredited by the crisis. It is argued that future reforms in global governance and regulatory structures need to take into account more fully the developing world to be effective. Ce Document examine l’impact de la crise financière mondiale sur les différentes formes du financement du développement pour les pays les plus pauvres, principalement à travers les transferts d’argent, l’aide au développement, et les investissements directs étrangers. Il montre que les canaux de transmission des effets de la crise ne sont pas nécessairement ceux auxquels on s’attendrait. La crise aura ainsi des conséquences majeures pour la soutenabilité de la dette extérieure des pays les plus pauvres — en dépit des initiatives de réduction dont ils bénéficient de la part de leurs créanciers — puisqu’ils sont affectés par une diminution des revenus d’exportation, des dépréciations monétaires et des déficits budgétaires croissants. La crise représente néanmoins une opportunité pour mettre en oeuvre certaines réformes. Ainsi, des budgets plus serrés pourraient stimuler les efforts d’amélioration de l’efficacité de l’aide publique au développement. Le Document souligne également que les perspectives pour les pays en voie de développement ne dépendent pas seulement de l’évolution de la crise financière dans les pays de l’OCDE, mais aussi de plus en plus des perspectives de croissance dans le reste du monde. A cet égard, les liens économiques entre les pays du Sud pourraient sortir renforcés de la crise. Enfin, étant donné le discrédit dont souffrent les structures de régulation existantes, le Document insiste sur la nécessité de mieux tenir compte des pays en voie de développement dans les réformes à venir de la gouvernance mondiale.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/224377364587
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 277.

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Date of creation: 30 Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:277-en

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Keywords: development finance; financial crisis; South-South linkages; global governance; international finance; financement du développement; finance internationale; gouvernance mondiale; liens sud-sud; crise financière;

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References

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  1. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
  2. Simone Bertoli & Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Francesco Manaresi, 2008. "Aid Effort and Its Determinants: A Comparison of the Italian Performance with other OECD Donors," Working Papers - Economics wp2008_11.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  3. Faini, Riccardo, 2006. "Foreign Aid and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  6. Amrita Narlikar & Diana Tussie, 2004. "The G20 at the Cancun Ministerial: Developing Countries and Their Evolving Coalitions in the WTO," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7), pages 947-966, 07.
  7. Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2008. "What determines foreign aid? The donors' perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, August.
  8. Round, Jeffery I. & Odedokun, Matthew, 2004. "Aid effort and its determinants," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 293-309.
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Cited by:
  1. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Simone Valente, 2011. "International Partnerships, Foreign Control and Income Levels: Theory and Evidence," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 11/154, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  2. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2009. "The 2008-2009 Financial Crisis and the HIPCs: Another Debt Crisis?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 29, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  3. Naude, Wim, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis after One Year: Is a New Paradigm for Recovery in Developing Countries Emerging?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER UNU Policy Brie, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Andrea Filippo Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "The Global Crisis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: How the IMF Responded," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 35, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  5. Franklin Allen and Giorgia Giovannetti, 2010. "Fragile Countries And The 2008-2009 Crisis," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 13, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  6. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Valente, Simone, 2013. "Property Rights, Oil and Income Levels: Over a Century of Evidence," MPRA Paper 52203, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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