Fragile Countries And The 2008-2009 Crisis
AbstractThis paper analyses the channels through which the economic and financial crisis of 2008-2009 is transmitted to fragile countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Trade stands out as the main direct channel, even though intra-Africa remittances play a relevant role, given that most migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa fragile countries cannot afford the cost of mi-grating to Europe or to the United States and stay close, remaining in the continent. Whether reduced aid flows also act as a crisis transmission channel remains an open question, even though preliminary estimates suggest that, at least in the medium run, OECD countries are likely to lower aid, with potentially very damaging effects on fragile countries. The paper also shows that fragile countries are characterised by very low re-silience and capacity to cope with shocks. It concludes, by highlighting how Sub-Saharan Africa fragile countries' policymakers' room for manoeuver is limited in periods of crisis because of low fiscal space and limited institutional capacity. It advocates that the right response to the crisis would be to mobilise domestic resources, although this will require functional institutions able to offset the potential trade-offs between adverse short-term shocks and a long-term perspective.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European University Institute in its series RSCAS Working Papers with number 2010/13.
Date of creation: 29 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
financial crisis; Sub Saharan Africa; real transmission channels. JEL Classification F0 O1.;
Other versions of this item:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rainer Thiele & Peter Nunnenkamp & Axel Dreher, 2010.
"Do Donors Target Aid in Line with the Millennium Development Goals? A Sector Perspective of Aid Allocation,"
- Rainer Thiele & Peter Nunnenkamp & Axel Dreher, 2007. "Do Donors Target Aid in Line with the Millennium Development Goals? A Sector Perspective of Aid Allocation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 143(4), pages 596-630, December.
- Thiele, Rainer & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Dreher, Axel, 2007. "Do donors target aid in line with the millennium development goals? : A sector perspective of aid allocation," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 4164, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Thiele, Rainer & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Dreher, Axel, 2007. "Do Donors Target Aid in Line with the Millennium Development Goals? A Sector Perspective of Aid Allocation," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Nicolas Berman and Philippe Martin, 2010.
"The Vulnerability Of Sub-Saharan Africa To The Financial Crisis: The Case Of Trade,"
EUI-RSCAS Working Papers
15, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Nicolas Berman and Philippe Martin, 2010. "The Vulnerability Of Sub-Saharan Africa To The Financial Crisis: The Case Of Trade," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/15, European University Institute.
- Berman, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "The vulnerability of sub-Saharan Africa to the financial crisis: the case of trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 7765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Riccardo Faini, 2006.
"Foreign aid and fiscal policy,"
Development Working Papers
212, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," Scholarly Articles 11129155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Gupta, Sanjeev & Pattillo, Catherine A. & Wagh, Smita, 2009. "Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-115, January.
- Freund, Caroline & Spatafora, Nikola, 2008. "Remittances, transaction costs, and informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 356-366, June.
- Andrew Mold & Dilan Ölcer & Annalisa Prizon, 2008. "The Fallout from the Financial Crisis (3): Will Aid Budgets Fall Victim to the Credit Crisis?," OECD Development Centre Policy Insights 85, OECD Publishing.
- Peter Kragelund, 2008. "The Return of Non-DAC Donors to Africa: New Prospects for African Development?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 26(5), pages 555-584, 09.
- Dilip Ratha, 2006. "Leveraging remittances for development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 173-185.
- Antonio Ciccone, 2011.
"Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment,"
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-27, October.
- Anne Boschini & Anders Olofsg�rd, 2007. "Foreign aid: An instrument for fighting communism?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 622-648.
- Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
- Beck, Thorsten, 2002.
"Financial development and international trade: Is there a link?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 107-131, June.
- Beck, T.H.L., 2002. "Financial development and international trade: Is there a Link?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125515, Tilburg University.
- Beck, Thorsten, 2001. "Financial development and international trade : is there a link?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2608, The World Bank.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014.
"This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cull, Robert & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Morduch, Jonathan, 2008.
"Microfinance meets the market,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4630, The World Bank.
- Ciccone, Antonio, 2008. "Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 7081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fosu, Augustin Kwasi & Naude, Wim, 2009. "The Global Economic Crisis: Towards Syndrome-Free Recovery for Africa," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Dilip Ratha & William Shaw, 2007. "South-South Migration and Remittances," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6733, October.
- Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2008. "What determines foreign aid? The donors' perspective," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, August.
- Mario Biggeri & Marco Sanfilippo, 2009. "Understanding China's move into Africa: an empirical analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 31-54.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- von Braun, Joachim & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela, 2009. ""Land grabbing" by foreign investors in developing countries: Risks and opportunities," Policy briefs 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- World Bank, 2009. "World Development Indicators 2009," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4367, October.
- Andrew Mold & Sebastian Paulo & Annalisa Prizon, 2009. "Taking Stock of the Credit Crunch: Implications for Development Finance and Global Governance," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 277, OECD Publishing.
- Ratha, Dilip & Mohapatra, Sanket & Plaza, Sonia, 2008. "Beyond aid : new sources and innovative mechanisms for financing development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4609, The World Bank.
- Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra, 2009. "Revised Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009?2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 5 to 8 Percent in 2009," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10990, The World Bank.
- Friedman, Jed & Schady, Norbert, 2009. "How many more infants are likely to die in Africa as a result of the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5023, The World Bank.
- Ronald U. Mendoza & Ryan Jones & Gabriel Vergara, 2009. "Will the global financial crisis lead to lower foreign aid? A first look at United States ODA," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2009-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
- Meniago, Christelle & Mukuddem-Petersen, Janine & Petersen, Mark A. & Mongale, Itumeleng P., 2013. "What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 482-492.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RSCAS web unit).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.