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International aid and financial crises in donor countries

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Author Info

  • Dang, Hai-Anh
  • Knack, Steve
  • Rogers, Halsey

Abstract

The global financial crisis has already led to sharp downturns in the developing world. In the past, international aid has been able to offset partially the effects of crises that began in the developing world, but because this crisis began in the wealthy countries, donors may be less willing or able to increase aid in this crisis. Not only have donor-country incomes fallen, but the cause of the drop -- the banking and financial-sector crisis -- may exacerbate the effect on aid flows because of its heavy fiscal costs. This paper estimates how donor-country banking crises have affected aid flows in the past, using panel data from 24 donor countries between 1977 and 2007. The analysis finds that banking crises in donor countries are associated with a substantial additional fall in aid flows, beyond any income-related effects, perhaps because of the high fiscal costs of crisis and the debt hangover in the post-crisis periods. In most specifications, aid flows from crisis-affected countries fall by an average of 20 to 25 percent (relative to the counterfactual) and bottom out only about a decade after the banking crisis hits. In addition, the results confirm that donor-country incomes are robustly related to per-capita aid flows, with an elasticity of about 3. Because all donor countries are being hit hard by the current global recession, and several have also suffered banking-sector crises, there are reasons to expect that aid could fall by a significant amount (again, relative to the counterfactual) in the coming years -- just when aid may be most clearly justified to help smooth exogenous shocks to developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5162.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5162

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Related research

Keywords: Economic Conditions and Volatility; Labor Policies; Debt Markets; Development Economics&Aid Effectiveness; Banks&Banking Reform;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2013. "How do OECD donor countries distribute foreign aid among developing countries during their fiscal episodes?," Working Papers halshs-00786009, HAL.
  2. Gravier-Rymaszewska, Joanna, 2012. "How Aid Supply Responds to Economic Crises: A Panel VAR Approach," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Sara Guerschanik Calvo, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-10: A View from the Social Sectors," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-18, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
  4. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2011. "The consequences of Fiscal Episodes in OECD Countries for Aid Supply," Working Papers halshs-00613161, HAL.
  5. Justin Yifu Lin & Doerte Doemeland, 2012. "Beyond Keynesianism: Global Infrastructure Investments In Times Of Crisis," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1250015-1-1.
  6. Andrea Filippo Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "The Global Crisis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: How the IMF Responded," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 35, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  7. Era Dabla-Norris & Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 10/240, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Isabel Ortiz & Jingqing Chai & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Space:Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries," Working papers 1108, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  9. Das, Debasish Kumar & Dutta, Champa Bati, 2012. "Global financial crisis and foreign development assistance shocks in least developing countries," MPRA Paper 40281, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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