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Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question

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  • Yves Jégourel

Abstract

Comme le rappelle le Policy brief 17/32 consacré en large part à l’hypothèse dite de « Prebisch-Singer », la dynamique du prix des matières premières se décompose en tendance de très long terme, en cycle et en instabilité (volatilité) à court terme (Jacks, 2013) 1 . La flambée du cours des matières premières sur la période 2002-2012 avait, dans cette perspective, conduit nombre d’observateurs à évoquer l’existence d’un « super-cycle » alimenté par la hausse structurelle de la demande chinoise de produits de base et, plus globalement, par l’essor économique des pays émergents. L’effondrement des cours observé entre 2014 et 2016, conjugué à une forte remontée depuis, ne peut manquer d’interroger sur la réalité d’un tel phénomène. Si la perspective d’un retour à de nouveaux sommets apparaît très éloignée, cette tendance haussière ne semble vouloir se démentir. Peut-on, pour autant, croire au retour d’un nouveau (super) cycle qui verrait le prix des produits de base associés à l’actuelle révolution écologique croître sans faiblir sur la prochaine décennie ? Quelles en seraient alors les conséquences, macroéconomiques notamment, pour les pays producteurs africains ? Autant de questions auxquelles ce Policy brief tente d’apporter des premiers éléments de réponse.

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1824, Policy Center for the New South.
    • Handle: RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb1824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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