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Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?

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  • John T Cuddington
  • Daniel Jerrett

Abstract

To borrow a phrase once used about business cycles, it can be said that “the study of super cycles necessarily begins with the measurement of super cycles” (adapted from Baxter and King, 1999). Are metal prices currently in the early phase of such a “super cycle”? Many market observers believe the answer is yes. Academics, on the other hand, are generally skeptical about the presence of long cycles. This paper searches for evidence of super cycles in metal prices by using band-pass filters to extract particular cyclical components from time series data. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that there have been three super cycles in the past 150 years or so, and that we are currently in the early phase of a fourth super cycle. Most analysts attribute the latter primarily to Chinese urbanization and industrialization. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 541–565. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.19; published online 19 August 2008

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 541-565

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:4:p:541-565

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Cited by:
  1. Stuermer, Martin, 2013. "150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices?," MPRA Paper 51859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
  3. Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Shankar, Rashmi & Trezzi, Riccardo, 2010. "Are commodity prices more volatile now ? a long-run perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 5460, The World Bank.
  4. John T. Cuddington & Abdel M. Zellou, 2012. "A Simple Mineral Market Model: Can it produce Super Cycles in prices?," Working Papers, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business 2012-05, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
  5. Roberts, Mark C., 2009. "Duration and characteristics of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 87-102, September.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government rwp12-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Radetzki, Marian & Eggert, Roderick G. & Lagos, Gustavo & Lima, Marcos & Tilton, John E., 2008. "The boom in mineral markets: How long might it last?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 125-128, September.
  8. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.
  9. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
  10. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, vol. 14(2), pages 39-78, August.
  11. Lee Robinson & Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2012. "China’s Ambiguous Impacts on Commodity-Dependent Countries: the Example of Sub-Saharan Africa (with a Focus on Zambia)," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-39, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  12. Humphreys, David, 2010. "The great metals boom: A retrospective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-13, March.
  13. Jerrett, Daniel & Cuddington, John T., 2008. "Broadening the statistical search for metal price super cycles to steel and related metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 188-195, December.
  14. David Harvey & Neil Kellard & Jakob Madsen & Mark Wohar, 2012. "Trends and Cycles in Real Commodity Prices: 1650-2010," CEH Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University 010, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  15. Nicole Alice Sindzingre, 2011. "The Rise of China in Sub-Saharan Africa: its Ambiguous Economic Impacts," Post-Print, HAL halshs-00636022, HAL.
  16. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji & Rao, Yao, 2012. "Testing the Prebish–Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 814-816.
  17. World Bank, . "South Asia Economic Focus, June 2011 : Food Inflation," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12662, The World Bank.

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