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Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets

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Author Info
Michael Bleaney,
Liliana Castilleja Vargas
Abstract

We compare the relationship between net capital inflows, real exchange rate movements and growth for twenty emerging markets and thirteen developed countries over the period 1985-2004. In developed countries low real exchange rates are associated with faster growth, but in emerging markets depreciations depress growth, even outside crisis periods, and are closely correlated with declines or reversals in net capital inflows. To investigate valuation effects of currency movements, we construct debt-weighted real exchange rate indices for emerging markets. We find only limited evidence that the contractionary effects of real depreciations in emerging markets can be attributed to valuation effects.

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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, CREDIT in its series Discussion Papers with number 07/12.

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Keywords: Capital flows real exchange rates growth emerging markets

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  1. Edward, Sebastian, 1986. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 501-08, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guillermo Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," NBER Working Papers 9808, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fernando A. Broner & R. Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Alejandro Izquierdo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability in Argentina," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(7), pages 903-923, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy, . "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," EPRU Working Paper Series 02-12, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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