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Aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy

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Author Info
Fernando Alexandre () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)
Pedro Bação () (GEMF and Universidade de Coimbra)
João Cerejeira () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)
Miguel Portela () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE and IZA)

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Abstract

Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that fluctuation in exchange rates may have strong reallocation effects. Accession to the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, and then to the European Monetary Union em 1999, implied a drastic change in the behavior of Portugal´s exchange rate indexes. The analysis of those indexes is therefore bound ti play an important role in the study of the evolution of the Portuguese economy in the last two decades. However, there are many alternative exchange rate indexes.In this paper, we compute and compare aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy. We find that alternative effective exchange rate indexes are very similar between them. We also find that sector-specific effective exchange rates are strongly correlated with aggregate indexes. Nevertheless, we show that sector-specific exchange rates are more informative than aggregate exchange rates in explaining changes in employment: whereas aggregate indexes are statistically in employment equations, regressions using sector-specific exchange rate indexes show a statistically significant and economically large effect of exchange rates on employment.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 13/2009.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:13/2009

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Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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Related research
Keywords: exchange rates; international trade; employment; EMU;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2001. "Employment Versus Wage Adjustment And The U.S. Dollar," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 477-489, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Manuel de Heredia Caldeira Cabral, 2008. "Export Diversification And Technological Improvement: Recent Trends In The Portuguese Economy," GEE Papers 0006, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Linda S. Goldberg, 2004. "Industry-specific exchange rates for the United States," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  4. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia & Ramos Maria, José, 2007. "International Trade Patterns over the Last Four Decades: How does Portugal Compare with other Cohesion Countries?," MPRA Paper 5996, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 1999. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Working Papers 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ekholm, Karolina & Moxnes, Andreas & Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene, 2008. "Manufacturing restructuring and the role of Real exchange rate shocks: A firm level analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela, 2009. "Employment and exchange rates: the role of openness and technology," GEMF Working Papers 2009-08, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
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