IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27165.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases

Author

Listed:
  • Evan M. Herrnstadt
  • Ryan Kellogg
  • Eric Lewis

Abstract

Oil and gas leases between mineral owners and extraction firms ubiquitously include royalty and primary term clauses. The royalty denotes the share of revenue that is paid to the mineral owner, and the primary term specifies the date by which the firm must complete a well, lest it lose the lease. Using data from the Louisiana shale boom, we first show that wells' drilling timing is substantially bunched just before lease expiration, raising the question of why leases include development deadlines that distort drilling decisions. We then develop a contracting model in which mineral owners face firms with private information and have the ability to contract on both realized revenue and drilling timing. We show that primary terms can increase both the owner's expected revenue and total surplus because they counteract the delay incentives imposed by the royalty.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan M. Herrnstadt & Ryan Kellogg & Eric Lewis, 2020. "The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases," NBER Working Papers 27165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27165
    Note: EEE IO PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27165.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "Using Cost Observation to Regulate Firms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 614-641, June.
    2. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
    3. John G. Riley, 1988. "Ex Post Information in Auctions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(3), pages 409-429.
    4. Louis Kaplow & Steven Shavell, 2002. "On the Superiority of Corrective Taxes to Quantity Regulation," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Peter M. DeMarzo & Ilan Kremer & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2005. "Bidding with Securities: Auctions and Security Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 936-959, September.
    6. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2010. "Investment in Energy Infrastructure and the Tax Code," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 1-33, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Peter Cramton, 1997. "The FCC Spectrum Auctions: An Early Assessment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 431-495, September.
    8. Porter, Robert H, 1995. "The Role of Information in U.S. Offshore Oil and Gas Lease Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 1-27, January.
    9. Paul Milgrom & Ilya Segal, 2002. "Envelope Theorems for Arbitrary Choice Sets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 583-601, March.
    10. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    11. Thomas R. Covert & Richard L. Sweeney, 2019. "Relinquishing Riches: Auctions vs Informal Negotiations in Texas Oil and Gas Leasing," NBER Working Papers 25712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest & Ashley Vissing, 2016. "Trophy Hunting vs. Manufacturing Energy: The Price-Responsiveness of Shale Gas," NBER Working Papers 22532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Arturs Kalnins, 2005. "Overestimation and Venture Survival: An Empirical Analysis of Development Commitments in International Master Franchising Ventures," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 933-953, December.
    14. Richard G. Newell & Brian C. Prest & Ashley B. Vissing, 2019. "Trophy Hunting versus Manufacturing Energy: The Price Responsiveness of Shale Gas," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 391-431.
    15. Brown, Jason P. & Fitzgerald, Timothy & Weber, Jeremy G., 2016. "Capturing rents from natural resource abundance: Private royalties from U.S. onshore oil & gas production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-38.
    16. Skrzypacz, Andrzej, 2013. "Auctions with contingent payments — An overview," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 666-675.
    17. Kaiser, Mark J., 2012. "Profitability assessment of Haynesville shale gas wells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 315-330.
    18. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    19. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    20. R. Preston McAfee & John McMillan, 1987. "Competition for Agency Contracts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 18(2), pages 296-307, Summer.
    21. Hendricks, Kenneth & Porter, Robert H, 1996. "The Timing and Incidence of Exploratory Drilling on Offshore Wildcat Tracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 388-407, June.
    22. T. Robert Fetter & Andrew L. Steck & Christopher Timmins & Douglas Wrenn, 2018. "Learning by Viewing? Social Learning, Regulatory Disclosure, and Firm Productivity in Shale Gas," NBER Working Papers 25401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Kenneth Hendricks & Dan Kovenock, 1989. "Asymmetric Information, Information Externalities, and Efficiency: The Case of Oil Exploration," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 20(2), pages 164-182, Summer.
    24. Hendricks, Kenneth & Porter, Robert H & Tan, Guofo, 1993. "Optimal Selling Strategies for Oil and Gas Leases with an Informed Buyer," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 234-239, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wong, Tak-Yuen & Wong, Ho-Po Crystal, 2023. "Securities auctions with pre-project information management," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Evan Herrnstadt & Ryan Kellogg & Eric Lewis, 2024. "Drilling Deadlines and Oil and Gas Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(1), pages 29-60, January.
    3. Andrés Fioriti & Allan Hernandez-Chanto, 2022. "Leveling the Playing Field for Risk-Averse Agents in Security-Bid Auctions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5441-5463, July.
    4. Lade, Gabriel E. & Rudik, Ivan, 2020. "Costs of inefficient regulation: Evidence from the Bakken," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Abhishek, Vineet & Hajek, Bruce & Williams, Steven R., 2013. "Auctions with a profit sharing contract," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 247-270.
    6. Liu, Tingjun, 2016. "Optimal equity auctions with heterogeneous bidders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 94-123.
    7. Jyh-Bang Jou & Charlene Tan Lee, 2023. "Design of the contingent royalty rate as related to the type of investment," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Rahul Deb & Debasis Mishra, 2013. "Implementation with securities," Discussion Papers 13-05, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
    9. Brown, Jason P. & Fitzgerald, Timothy & Weber, Jeremy G., 2016. "Capturing rents from natural resource abundance: Private royalties from U.S. onshore oil & gas production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-38.
    10. Kiho Yoon, 2020. "Bilateral trading with contingent contracts," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 49(2), pages 445-461, June.
    11. Di Corato, Luca & Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2015. "Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts under the threat of early exit: the case of conservation auctions," Working Paper Series 2015:6, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    12. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:4:a:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Pandey, Ashish, 2016. "High Bids and Low Recovery: A Possible Case for Non-Performing Loan Auctions in India," MPRA Paper 75254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sun, Wuqin & Wang, Dazhong & Zhang, Yue, 2018. "Optimal profit sharing mechanisms with type-dependent outside options," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 57-66.
    15. Byoung Jun & Elmar Wolfstetter, 2014. "Security bid auctions for agency contracts," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 18(4), pages 289-319, December.
    16. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2009. "Do Firms Interact Strategically?," Working Papers 225896, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. Levitt, Clinton J., 2016. "Information spillovers in onshore oil and gas exploration," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-98.
    18. Wang, Dazhong & Xu, Xinyi, 2022. "Optimal equity auction with interdependent valuations," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    19. Gideon Bornstein & Per Krusell & Sergio Rebelo, 2017. "A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market," NBER Working Papers 23423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Moura, Rodrigo Leandro & Canêdo-Pinheiro, Maurício & Daitx, Fernando, 2012. "Determinantes do lance vencedor em leilões de petróleo e gás: Avaliando o caso brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(4), December.
    21. Felipe Balmaceda, 2020. "Contracting with moral hazard, adverse selection and risk neutrality: when does one size fit all?," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 49(2), pages 601-637, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • L24 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Contracting Out; Joint Ventures
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.