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AIG in Hindsight

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  • Robert L. McDonald
  • Anna Paulson

Abstract

The near-failure on September 16, 2008, of American International Group (AIG) was an iconic moment in the financial crisis. Two large bets on real estate made with funding that was vulnerable to bank-run like behavior on the part of funders pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. AIG used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, ultimately losing at least $21 billion and threatening the solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold insurance on multi-sector collateralized debt obligations, backed by real estate assets, ultimately losing more than $30 billion. These activities were apparently motivated by a belief that AIG’s real estate bets would not suffer defaults and were “money-good.” We find that these securities have in fact suffered write-downs and that the stark “money-good” claim can be rejected. Ultimately, both liquidity and solvency were issues for AIG.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert L. McDonald & Anna Paulson, 2015. "AIG in Hindsight," NBER Working Papers 21108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21108
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    1. FSOC and Systemic Risk: Treasury's Report
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    5. Flood, Mark D. & Kenett, Dror Y. & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Simon, Jonathan K., 2020. "The Complexity of Bank Holding Companies: A Topological Approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Girardi, Giulio & Hanley, Kathleen W. & Nikolova, Stanislava & Pelizzon, Loriana & Sherman, Mila Getmansky, 2021. "Portfolio similarity and asset liquidation in the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 69-96.
    7. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2023. "Uncovering the network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets: evidence from large regulatory data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1799-1822, October.
    8. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Stefan Gissler & Stephane Verani, 2019. "Over-the-Counter Market Liquidity and Securities Lending," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 272-294, July.
    10. Cont, Rama & Kotlicki, Artur & Valderrama, Laura, 2020. "Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Uhlig, Harald & Ospina, Juan, 2018. "Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem," CEPR Discussion Papers 12852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    13. Michelle L. Barnes, 2016. "Did life insurers benefit from TARP or regulatory forbearance during the financial crisis of 2008–2009?," Working Papers 16-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Franch, Fabio & Nocciola, Luca & Vouldis, Angelos, 2022. "Temporal networks in the analysis of financial contagion," Working Paper Series 2667, European Central Bank.
    15. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alexandra de Jong & Alin Draghiciu & Linda Fache Rousová & Alessandro Fontana & Elisa Letizia, 2019. "Impact of Variation Margining on EU Insurers’ Liquidity: An Analysis of Interest Rate Swaps Positions," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 16, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    17. Regele, Fabian & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Asset concentration risk and insurance solvency regulation," ICIR Working Paper Series 40/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    18. Carmela D’Avino, 2019. "Extraterritoriality of swaps regulation and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 167-187, December.
    19. Karolina Puławska, 2021. "Financial Stability of European Insurance Companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    20. Kraft, Pepa & Xie, Yuan & Zhou, Ling, 2020. "The intraday timing of rating changes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    21. Allen, Linda & Tang, Yi, 2016. "What’s the contingency? A proposal for bank contingent capital triggered by systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-14.

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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