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Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms

Author

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  • Ralph S.J. Koijen
  • Motohiro Yogo

Abstract

We summarize recent trends in risk exposure for U.S. life insurers from variable annuities, shadow insurance, securities lending, and derivatives. We discuss how these sources of risk could be amplified and transmitted to the rest of the financial sector and the real economy. More complete and transparent financial statements are necessary to accurately assess the overall risk mismatch in the insurance industry. We suggest ways to disclose relevant information and discuss some implications for insurance regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23365
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2015. "The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 445-475, January.
    2. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Nieuwerburgh & Motohiro Yogo, 2016. "Health and Mortality Delta: Assessing the Welfare Cost of Household Insurance Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 957-1010, April.
    3. Andrew Ellul & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian T. Lundblad & Yihui Wang, 2015. "Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress, Incentive Distortions, and Gains Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2489-2538, December.
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    7. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2014. "Systemic Risk and The U.S. Insurance Sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 489-528, September.
    8. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    9. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    10. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    11. Bo Becker & Marcus Opp, 2013. "Regulatory reform and risk-taking: replacing ratings," NBER Working Papers 19257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    13. Juliane Begenau & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "Banks' Risk Exposures," NBER Working Papers 21334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Merrill, Craig B. & Nadauld, Taylor D. & Stulz, Rene M. & Sherlund, Shane, 2012. "Did Capital Requirements and Fair Value Accounting Spark Fire Sales in Distressed Mortgage-Backed Securities?," Working Papers 13-01, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    15. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Motohiro Yogo & Ralph S.J. Koijen, 2009. "Optimal Health and Longevity Insurance," 2009 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stéphane Verani, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the US Life Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3520-3569.
    17. Ellul, Andrew & Lundblad, Christian T & Wang, Yihui & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak, 2015. "Is Historical Cost Accounting a Panacea? Market Stress, Incentive Distortions, and Gains Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 10450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. FSOC and Systemic Risk: Treasury's Report
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-11-20 20:14:14
    2. Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-29 12:24:21

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Woong Park & Hyunchul Ahn, 2022. "Not All Churn Customers Are the Same: Investigating the Effect of Customer Churn Heterogeneity on Customer Value in the Financial Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    2. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2022. "The Fragility of Market Risk Insurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 815-862, April.
    3. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Grochola, Nicolaus & Browne, Mark Joseph & Gründl, Helmut & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2021. "Exploring the market risk profiles of U.S. and European life insurers," ICIR Working Paper Series 39/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    5. Leong, Soon Heng & Pellegrini, Carlo Bellavite & Urga, Giovanni, 2020. "The contribution of shadow insurance to systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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