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Why did HIV decline in Uganda?

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  • Marcella M. Alsan
  • David M. Cutler

Abstract

Uganda is widely viewed as a public health success for curtailing its HIV/AIDS epidemic in the early 1990s. We investigate the factors contributing to this decline. We first build a model of HIV transmission. Calibration of the model indicates that reduced pre-marital sexual activity among young women is the most important factor in the decline in HIV. We next explore what led young women to change their behavior. We estimate that approximately one-third the reduction in HIV in this cohort and almost 20 percent of the overall HIV decline was due to a gender-targeted education policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16171.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16171

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  1. Sarah Baird & Ephraim Chirwa & Craig McIntosh & Berk Özler, 2010. "The short‐term impacts of a schooling conditional cash transfer program on the sexual behavior of young women," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(S1), pages 55-68, September.
  2. Pascaline Dupas, 2009. "Do Teenagers Respond to HIV Risk Information? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Kenya," NBER Working Papers 14707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Juhn, Chinhui & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2009. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," IZA Discussion Papers 4473, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Anne Case & Christina Paxson, 2011. "The Impact of the AIDS Pandemic on Health Services in Africa: Evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys," Demography, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 675-697, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Alsan, Marcella M. & Cutler, David M., 2013. "Girls’ education and HIV risk: Evidence from Uganda," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 863-872.

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