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Uncovering the Effect of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Malawi

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Author Info

  • Durevall, Dick

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

  • Lindskog, Annika

    ()
    (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)

Abstract

In many Sub-Saharan countries the HIV epidemic has spread to over 10% of the working-age population, and is likely to affect economically relevant behaviour. We evaluate the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the reproductive behaviour for women in Malawi, allowing for a heterogeneous response depending on age and prior number of births. HIV/AIDS increases the probability that a young woman would give birth to her first child, while it decreases the probability to give birth of older women or of young women who have already given birth. The resulting change in the distribution of fertility across age groups is likely to be more demographically and economically important than changes in the total number of children a woman gives birth to.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/17898
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 318.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 16 Sep 2008
Date of revision: 28 Oct 2008
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Population Economics, 2010.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0318

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GÖTEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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Related research

Keywords: AIDS; Demographic Transition; HIV; Fertility; Malawi;

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  1. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June.
  2. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2008. "HIV and Fertility in Africa: First Evidence from Population Based Surveys," NBER Working Papers 14248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Durevall, Dick & Lindskog, Annika, 2007. "HIV/AIDS, Adult Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi," Working Papers in Economics 284, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  4. McDonald, Scott & Roberts, Jennifer, 2006. "AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 228-250, June.
  5. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2003. "A stochastic model of mortality, fertility, and human capital investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 103-118, February.
  6. Gustavo Angeles & David Guilkey & Thomas Mroz, 2005. "The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 367-389, 06.
  7. Alwyn Young, 2007. "In sorrow to bring forth children: fertility amidst the plague of HIV," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 283-327, December.
  8. Barmby, T & Cigno, A, 1990. "A Sequential Probability Model of Fertility Patterns," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 31-51, April.
  9. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
  10. Ueyama, Mika & Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2008. "Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: Evidence from Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 764, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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