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Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods

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Author Info
Gautam Gowrisankaran
Marc Rysman

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Abstract

This paper specifies and estimates a dynamic model of consumer preferences for new durable goods with persistent heterogeneous consumer tastes, rational expectations about future products and repeat purchases over time. Most new consumer durable goods, particularly consumer electronics, are characterized by relatively high initial prices followed by rapid declines in prices and improvements in quality. The evolving nature of product attributes suggests the importance of modeling dynamics in estimating consumer preferences. We estimate the model on the digital camcorder industry using a panel data set on prices, sales and characteristics. We find that dynamics are a very important determinant of consumer preferences and that estimated coefficients are more plausible than with traditional static models. We use the estimates to evaluate cost-of-living indices for new consumer goods and dynamic demand elasticities.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14737.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14737

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
L68 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Appliances; Other Consumer Durables

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  1. Andrew Sweeting, 2008. "Equilibrium Price Dynamics in Perishable Goods Markets: The Case of Secondary Markets for Major League Baseball Tickets," NBER Working Papers 14505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lou, Weifang & Prentice, David & Yin, Xiangkang, 2008. "The Effects of Product Ageing on Demand: The Case of Digital Cameras," MPRA Paper 13407, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nair, Harikesh, S., 2006. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination with Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the US Market for Console Video-Games," Research Papers 1947, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bart Bronnenberg & Jean Dubé & Carl Mela & Paulo Albuquerque & Tulin Erdem & Brett Gordon & Dominique Hanssens & Guenter Hitsch & Han Hong & Baohong Sun, 2008. "Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 367-382, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Christopher R. Knittel & Konstantinos Metaxoglou, 2008. "Estimation of Random Coefficient Demand Models: Challenges, Difficulties and Warnings," NBER Working Papers 14080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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