The dynamics of automobile expenditures
AbstractThis paper presents a dynamic model for light motor vehicles. Consumers solve an optimal stopping problem in deciding if they want a new automobile and when in the model year to purchase it. This dynamic approach allows for determining how the mix of consumers evolves over the model year and for measuring consumers' substitution patterns across products and time. I find that temporal substitution is significant, driving consumers' entry into and exit from the market. Through counterfactuals, I show that because consumers will temporarily substitute to a large degree, failure to account for automakers' dynamic pricing strategies results in an inaccurate picture of the return to using pricing incentives. A further finding is that the large price discounts typically offered at the end of the model year result in price discrimination by inducing price-sensitive consumers to delay purchasing new vehicles until the later months of the model year.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 394.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pasquale Schiraldi, 2011.
"Automobile replacement: a dynamic structural approach,"
RAND Journal of Economics,
RAND Corporation, vol. 42(2), pages 266-291, 06.
- Pasquale Schiraldi, 2010. "Automobile Replacement: A DynamicStructural Approach," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 49, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Hall, George J., 2000.
"Non-convex costs and capital utilization: A study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 681-716, June.
- George J. Hall, 1997. "Non-Convex Costs and Capital Utilization: A Study of Production Scheduling at Automobile Assembly Plants," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1169, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Adam Copeland & Wendy Dunn & George Hall, 2005.
"Prices, Production and Inventories over the Automotive Model Year,"
NBER Working Papers
11257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adam Copeland & Wendy Dunn & George Hall, 2005. "Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- George Hall & Adam Copeland & Wendy Dunn, 2005. "Prices, Production, and Inventories Over the Automotive Model Year," 2005 Meeting Papers 346, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Copeland, Adam & Hall, George J., 2005. "Prices, Production and Inventories over the Automotive Model Year," Working Papers 2, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Sobel, Joel, 1991. "Durable Goods Monopoly with Entry of New Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1455-85, September.
- Aguirregabiria, Victor, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308, April.
- Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.