IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/2103r2.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Airline Markets

Author

Abstract

Airfares fluctuate due to demand shocks and intertemporal variation in willingness to pay. I estimate a model of dynamic airline pricing accounting for both sources of price adjustments using novel flight-level data. I use the model estimates to evaluate the welfare e?ects of dynamic airline pricing. Relative to uniform pricing, dynamic pricing bene?ts early-arriving, leisure consumers at the expense of late-arriving, business travelers. Although dynamic pricing ensures seat availability for business travelers, these consumers are then charged higher prices. When aggregated over markets, welfare is higher under dynamic pricing than under uniform pricing. The directionality of the welfare e?ect at the market level depends on whether dynamic price adjustments are mainly driven by demand shocks or by changes in the overall demand elasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence from Airline Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2103R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2103r2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d21/d2103u2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Dirk Bergemann & Benjamin Brooks & Stephen Morris, 2015. "The Limits of Price Discrimination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 921-957, March.
    3. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and consumer inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, September.
    4. Victor Aguirregabiria, 1999. "The Dynamics of Markups and Inventories in Retailing Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 275-308.
    5. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Marc Rysman, 2012. "Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1173-1219.
    6. Guillermo Gallego & Garrett van Ryzin, 1994. "Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(8), pages 999-1020, August.
    7. John Conlisk & Eitan Gerstner & Joel Sobel, 1984. "Cyclic Pricing by a Durable Goods Monopolist," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(3), pages 489-505.
    8. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2020. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," NBER Working Papers 26794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kalyan Talluri & Garrett van Ryzin, 2004. "Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 15-33, January.
    10. Jeffrey I. McGill & Garrett J. van Ryzin, 1999. "Revenue Management: Research Overview and Prospects," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 233-256, May.
    11. Harikesh Nair, 2007. "Intertemporal price discrimination with forward-looking consumers: Application to the US market for console video-games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 239-292, September.
    12. Steven Berry & Panle Jia, 2010. "Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-43, August.
    13. Pascal Courty & Mario Pagliero, 2012. "The Impact of Price Discrimination on Revenue: Evidence from the Concert Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 359-369, February.
    14. Sobel, Joel, 1991. "Durable Goods Monopoly with Entry of New Consumers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1455-1485, September.
    15. Iñaki Aguirre & Simon Cowan & John Vickers, 2010. "Monopoly Price Discrimination and Demand Curvature," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1601-1615, September.
    16. Siegert, Caspar & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Gaurab Aryal & Charles Murry & Jonathan W. Williams, 2018. "Price Discrimination in International Airline Markets," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 968, Boston College Department of Economics.
    18. Simon Board & Andrzej Skrzypacz, 2016. "Revenue Management with Forward-Looking Buyers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1046-1087.
    19. Wen Zhao & Yu-Sheng Zheng, 2000. "Optimal Dynamic Pricing for Perishable Assets with Nonhomogeneous Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 375-388, March.
    20. Gale, Ian L & Holmes, Thomas J, 1993. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Monopoly Allocation of Capacity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 135-146, March.
    21. Phillip Leslie, 2004. "Price Discrimination in Broadway Theater," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(3), pages 520-541, Autumn.
    22. Marco Alderighi & Marcella Nicolini & Claudio A. Piga, 2015. "Combined Effects of Capacity and Time on Fares: Insights from the Yield Management of a Low-Cost Airline," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 900-915, October.
    23. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November.
    24. Jun Li & Nelson Granados & Serguei Netessine, 2014. "Are Consumers Strategic? Structural Estimation from the Air-Travel Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2114-2137, September.
    25. Wedad Elmaghraby & P{i}nar Keskinocak, 2003. "Dynamic Pricing in the Presence of Inventory Considerations: Research Overview, Current Practices, and Future Directions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(10), pages 1287-1309, October.
    26. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
    27. Xuanming Su, 2007. "Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 726-741, May.
    28. Guillermo Gallego & Huseyin Topaloglu, 2019. "Revenue Management and Pricing Analytics," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-1-4939-9606-3, September.
    29. Francesc Dilmé & Fei Li, 2019. "Revenue Management without Commitment: Dynamic Pricing and Periodic Flash Sales," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1999-2034.
    30. John Rust & Sungjin Cho, 2018. "Optimal Dynamic Hotel Pricing," 2018 Meeting Papers 179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    31. Aniko Ory, 2016. "Consumers on a Leash: Advertised Sales and Intertemporal Price Discrimination," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    32. James D. Dana Jr., 1998. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Price Discrimination in Competitive Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 395-422, April.
    33. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, Autumn.
    34. Andrew Sweeting, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing Behavior in Perishable Goods Markets: Evidence from Secondary Markets for Major League Baseball Tickets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1133-1172.
    35. Alex Gershkov & Benny Moldovanu & Philipp Strack, 2018. "Revenue-Maximizing Mechanisms with Strategic Customers and Unknown, Markovian Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2031-2046, May.
    36. Peter P. Belobaba, 1989. "OR Practice—Application of a Probabilistic Decision Model to Airline Seat Inventory Control," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 37(2), pages 183-197, April.
    37. Nancy L. Stokey, 1979. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(3), pages 355-371.
    38. Gonca P. Soysal & Lakshman Krishnamurthi, 2012. "Demand Dynamics in the Seasonal Goods Industry: An Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 293-316, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Hortaçsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline," NBER Working Papers 29508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "Dynamic Airline Pricing and Seat Availability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2103R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2020.
    2. Kevin R. Williams, 2022. "The Welfare Effects of Dynamic Pricing: Evidence From Airline Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 831-858, March.
    3. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Piga, Claudio A., 2022. "Hidden prices with fixed inventory: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-61.
    4. Kevin R. Williams, 2017. "Dynamic Airline Pricing and Seat Availability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Gonca P. Soysal & Lakshman Krishnamurthi, 2012. "Demand Dynamics in the Seasonal Goods Industry: An Empirical Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 293-316, March.
    6. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
    7. Diego Escobari & Nicholas G. Rupp & Joseph Meskey, 2019. "An Analysis of Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 639-662, January.
    8. Escobari, Diego & Rupp, Nicholas & Meskey, Joseph, 2018. "Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," MPRA Paper 88078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ali Hortacsu & Olivia R. Natan & Hayden Parsley & Timothy Schwieg & Kevin R. Williams, 2021. "Organizational Structure and Pricing: Evidence from a Large U.S. Airline," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2312R4, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2023.
    10. Ken Moon & Kostas Bimpikis & Haim Mendelson, 2018. "Randomized Markdowns and Online Monitoring," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1271-1290, March.
    11. Escobari, Diego, 2014. "Estimating dynamic demand for airlines," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 26-29.
    12. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136R2, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2019.
    13. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Oligopoly Price Discrimination: The Role of Inventory Controls," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Omar Besbes & Ilan Lobel, 2015. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination: Structure and Computation of Optimal Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 92-110, January.
    15. Xuanming Su, 2007. "Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 726-741, May.
    16. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2020. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," NBER Working Papers 26794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Sequential Quantity-Price Games," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2020.
    18. Mingyu Joo & Dinesh K. Gauri & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2020. "Temporal Distance and Price Responsiveness: Empirical Investigation of the Cruise Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 5362-5388, November.
    19. James D. Dana Jr. & Kevin R. Williams, 2018. "This paper develops an oligopoly model in which firms first choose capacity and then compete in prices in a series of advance-purchase markets. We show the existence of multiple sales opportunities cr," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2136R4, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 2021.
    20. Siegert, Caspar & Ulbricht, Robert, 2020. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing: Evidence from the airline industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic pricing; Intertemporal price discrimination; Price discrimination; Stochastic demand; Pricing; Airlines; Dynamic discrete choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2103r2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.