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Managing Contribution and Capital Market Risk in a Funded Public Defined Benefit Plan: Impact of CVaR Cost Constraints

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  • Raimond Maurer
  • Olivia S. Mitchell
  • Ralph Rogalla

Abstract

Using a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager's objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.

Suggested Citation

  • Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla, 2008. "Managing Contribution and Capital Market Risk in a Funded Public Defined Benefit Plan: Impact of CVaR Cost Constraints," NBER Working Papers 14332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14332
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    2. Ai, Jing & Brockett, Patrick L. & Jacobson, Allen F., 2015. "A new defined benefit pension risk measurement methodology," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 40-51.
    3. Muysken, J. & Sleijpen, O.C.H.M., 2011. "Lessons from the financial crisis: funded pension funds should invest conservatively," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Lin, Yijia & MacMinn, Richard D. & Tian, Ruilin, 2015. "De-risking defined benefit plans," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 52-65.
    5. Dong-Hwa Lee & Joo-Ho Sung, 2024. "Dynamic Liability-Driven Investment under Sponsor’s Loss Aversion," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Samuel H. Cox & Yijia Lin & Ruilin Tian & Jifeng Yu, 2013. "Managing Capital Market and Longevity Risks in a Defined Benefit Pension Plan," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 585-620, September.
    7. Cox, Samuel H. & Lin, Yijia & Shi, Tianxiang, 2018. "Pension risk management with funding and buyout options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-200.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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