Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes -- A Trap?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Reuven Glick

Abstract

This paper studies the empirical and theoretical association between the duration of a pegged exchange rate and the cost experienced upon exiting the regime. We confirm empirically that exits from pegged exchange rate regimes during the past two decades have often been accompanied by crises, the cost of which increases with the duration of the peg before the crisis. We explain these observations in a framework in which the exchange rate peg is used as a commitment mechanism to achieve inflation stability, but multiple equilibria are possible. We show that there are ex ante large gains from choosing a more conservative not only in order to mitigate the inflation bias from the well-known time inconsistency problem, but also to steer the economy away from the high inflation equilibria. These gains, however, come at a cost in the form of the monetary authority%u2019s lesser responsiveness to output shocks. In these circumstances, using a pegged exchange rate as an anti-inflation commitment device can create a %u201Ctrap%u201D whereby the regime initially confers gains in anti-inflation credibility, but ultimately results in an exit occasioned by a big enough adverse real shock that creates large welfare losses to the economy. We also show that the more conservative is the regime in place and the larger is the cost of regime change, the longer will be the average spell of the fixed exchange rate regime, and the greater the output contraction at the time of a regime change.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11652.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11652.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11652

Note: IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  3. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
  5. Cukierman, A. & Liviatan, N., 1989. "Optimal Accommodation By Strong Policymakers Under Incomplete Information," Papers 13-89, Tel Aviv.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Enrica Detragiache & Eisuke Okada & Ashoka Mody, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 05/39, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry, 1999. "Kicking the Habit: Moving from Pegged Rates to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C1-14, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about their Determinants and Governance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 351-386, December.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 13902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
  4. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2010. "Asset Class Diversification and Delegation of Responsibilities between Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds," NBER Working Papers 16392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Comment on "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections"," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 311-317 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(4), pages 359-388, December.
  8. Tamgac, Unay, 2013. "Duration of fixed exchange rate regimes in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-467.
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.