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Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes-A Trap?

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  • JOSHUA AIZENMAN
  • REUVEN GLICK

Abstract

We analyze the role of an exchange rate peg as a commitment mechanism to achieve inflation stability when multiple equilibria are possible. We show that there are "ex ante" large gains from choosing a more conservative regime not only in order to mitigate inflation bias from time inconsistency but also to avoid high inflation equilibria. In these circumstances, using a pegged exchange rate as an anti-inflation commitment device can create a "trap" whereby the regime initially confers gains in anti-inflation credibility but ultimately results in an exit occasioned by a big enough adverse real shock that creates large welfare losses to the economy. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (06)
Pages: 817-835

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:4:p:817-835

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1999. "Kicking the Habit: Moving from Pegged Rates to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C1-14, March.
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Enrica Detragiache & Eisuke Okada & Ashoka Mody, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 05/39, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  7. Cukierman, Alex & Liviatan, Nissan, 1991. "Optimal accommodation by strong policymakers under incomplete information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 99-127, February.
  8. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," IHEID Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 13902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2008. "Navigating the trilemma: capital flows and monetary policy in China," Working Paper Series 2008-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. El-Shagi, Makram, 2009. "The impact of fixed exchange rates on fiscal discipline," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 84, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Glick, Reuven, 2010. "Asset Class Diversification and Delegation of Responsibilities between Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5ps238ph, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  6. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2009. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt840728sc, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2009. "Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about their Determinants and Governance," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 351-386, December.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," NBER Working Papers 12515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Comment on "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections"," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 311-317 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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