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Settlers and Guests - Determinants of the Plans of Return Migration from UK and Ireland to Poland in the Period 2007-2009

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According to the Polish Central Statistical Office estimates, after the year 2004, in which Poland joined the EU, more than 1 million Polish citizens moved to other EU countries. The recent economic crisis that influenced Poland asymmetrically as compared to the main migrant destination countries created an opportunity to observe how rapid changes in economic incentives can influence decisions about return migration. This paper has two aims: (1) identification of the strategies adopted by Polish emigrants that can explain their returns to the home country and (2) the verification of two major migration theories (the classical approach versus the "New Economics of Migration" approach). The analysis is based mainly on data coming from a unique three-edition survey of Polish emigrants conducted by the National Bank of Poland in the United Kingdom and in Ireland in 2007, 2008 and 2009. The discrimination between migration strategies is performed with the use of ordered logit models using extensive information from the survey. The results of the analysis show that, assuming that the plans regarding the migrants' duration of stay abroad reflect their migration strategies, the strategies are diverse and significantly correlated with the personal characteristics of emigrants. The intensity of outward migration flows can be explained by the classical theory but the results support the "New Economics of Migration" approach in the explanation of simultanous return migration flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 84.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:84

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Keywords: Emigrants; International Migration; Labour Migration; Labour Mobility; Migrant Workers; Migration; Mobility; Remittances;

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  1. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
  2. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Christopher Baum & Yingying Dong & Arthur Lewbel & Tao Yang, 2012. "Binary choice models with endogenous regressors," SAN12 Stata Conference 9, Stata Users Group.
  4. Nekby, Lena, 2004. "The Emigration of Immigrants, Return vs. Onward Migration: Evidence from Sweden," Research Papers in Economics 2004:7, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  5. Nil Demet Gungor & Aysıt Tansel, 2008. "Brain drain from Turkey: an investigation of students' return intentions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(23), pages 3069-3087.
  6. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
  7. de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Sauermann, Jan, 2009. "What Affects International Migration of European Science and Engineering Graduates?," IZA Discussion Papers 4268, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Dean Yang, 2006. "Why Do Migrants Return to Poor Countries? Evidence From Philippine Migrants%u2019 Responses to Exchange Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Richard Williams, 2006. "Generalized ordered logit/partial proportional odds models for ordinal dependent variables," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(1), pages 58-82, March.
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