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Testing for Rate-Dependence and Asymmetry in Inflation Uncertainty:Evidence from the G7 Economies

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Author Info
Olan T. Henry
Nilss Olekalns
Sandy Suardi

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Abstract

The Friedman-Ball hypothesis implies a link between the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty. In this paper we employ a new test for the joint null hypothesis of no dependence effects and no asymmetry in the G7 inflation volatility. The results show that higher inflationrates operate additively via the conditional variance of inflation to induce greater inflation uncertainty in the U.S., U.K. and Canada. In addition, positive inflationary shocks are found to generate greater inflation uncertainty than negative shocks of a similar magnitude in the U.K. and Canada.

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File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/SITE/research/workingpapers/wp06/959.pdf
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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 959.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:959

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Related research
Keywords: Friedman-Ball hypothesis Asymmetry Davies’ Problem

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other

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  1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, . "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility: Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0206, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Olan T. Henry & Sandy Suardi, 2004. "Testing for a Level Effect in Short-Term Interest Rates," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 924, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hwang, Y., 2001. "Relationship between inflation rate and inflation uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 179-186, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  12. Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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