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Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey

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  • dogru, bulent

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty is analyzed using Granger causality tests with annual inflation series covering the time period 1923 to 2012 for Turkish Economy. Inflation uncertainty is measured by Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic model. Econometric findings suggest that although in long run the Friedman's hypothesis that high inflation increases inflation uncertainty is strongly supported, in short run the Holland hypothesis proposing that the increase in the inflation uncertainty decreases inflation is also supported for Turkish Economy. We also make analyses for subsample periods selected due to the major policy changes in Turkish economic history. The causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in these subsample periods is mixed and depends on time period analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • dogru, bulent, 2014. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in Turkey," MPRA Paper 61384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:61384
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Uncertainty; Conditional Variance; Granger Causality; Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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