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Threshold GARCH modeling of the inflation & inflation uncertainty relationship: historical evidence from the Turkish economy

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  • Korap, Levent

Abstract

In this paper, the preceding / causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty have been tried to be examined for the Turkish economy. Dealing with the information content of this relationship, we estimate that positive inflationary shocks are associated with statistically significant and quantitatively larger levels of inflation uncertainty than are negative shocks. Our estimation results indicate that inflation in fact leads to inflation uncertainty in line with the Friedman-Ball hypotheses. However, our findings contradict the Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses that inflation uncertainty leads to inflation in a positive way. We find that the larger the inflation uncertainty the lower would likely to be the level of inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31765.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published in İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası 2.60(2010): pp. 157-172
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31765

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Keywords: Inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; Threshold GARCH Modeling; Granger Causality Analysis; Turkish Economy;

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  1. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos,Menelaos, 2001. "Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth," Working Papers 0053, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
  2. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  4. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  6. Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, . "Testing for Rate-Dependence and Asymmetry in Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 Economies," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0306, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  7. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  11. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  12. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  13. Barbara Caporale & Tony Caporale, 2002. "Asymmetric effects of inflation shocks on inflation uncertainty," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(4), pages 385-388, December.
  14. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November.
  15. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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