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Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods

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  • Kevin Lee
  • Nilss Olekalns
  • Kalvinder Shields

Abstract

This paper provides a characterisation of UK and Australian monetary policy within a Taylor rule framework, accommodating uncertainties about the nature and duration of policy regimes in a flexible but easy-to-implement analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on a set of Taylor rules obtained through linear regression methods, but combined into a ‘meta’ rule using model averaging techniques. Using data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the meta Taylor rule provides a useful and detailed characterisation of monetary policies in the UK and Australia over the last thirty years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 1138.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1138

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Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 5th Floor, Economics and Commerce Building, Victoria, 3010, Australia
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Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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Keywords: Taylor rule; real-time policy; model uncertainty; monetary policy in UK and Australia; interest rates;

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  1. Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields & Tony Garratt, 2005. "Real time Representations of the Output Gap," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 26, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  2. Gordon de Brouwer & Luci Ellis, 1998. "Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9803, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  4. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  5. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Mise, Emi & Shields, Kalvinder, 2009. "Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 81-102.
  6. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: A Guide Using Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Alexander Mihailov, 2005. "Operational Independence, Inflation Targeting and UK Monetary Policy," Economics Discussion Papers 602, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  8. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
  9. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Modelling Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting in Practice," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(281), pages 209-221, 05.
  10. Stemp, Peter J, 1991. "Optimal Weights in a Check-List of Monetary Indicators," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(196), pages 1-13, March.
  11. GORDON de BROUWER & JAMES GILBERT, 2005. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 124-134, 06.
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