Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods
AbstractThis paper provides a characterisation of UK and Australian monetary policy within a Taylor rule framework, accommodating uncertainties about the nature and duration of policy regimes in a flexible but easy-to-implement analysis. Our approach involves estimation and inference based on a set of Taylor rules obtained through linear regression methods, but combined into a ‘meta’ rule using model averaging techniques. Using data that were available in real time, the estimated version of the meta Taylor rule provides a useful and detailed characterisation of monetary policies in the UK and Australia over the last thirty years.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 1138.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
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Taylor rule; real-time policy; model uncertainty; monetary policy in UK and Australia; interest rates;
Other versions of this item:
- Kevin Lee & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2013. "Meta Taylor Rules for the UK and Australia; Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis Using Model Averaging Methods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 28-53, October.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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