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The Quantity Theory of Money in Historical Perspective

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Author Info
Michael Graff () (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich)

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Abstract

The paper reconstructs the origins of the quantity theory of money and its applications. Against the background of the history of money, it is shown that the theory was flexible enough to adapt to institutional change and thus succeeded in maintaining its relevance. To this day, it is useful as an analytical framework. Although, due to Goodhart's Law, it now has only limited potential to guide monetary policy and was consequently abandoned by most central banks, an empirical analysis drawing on a panel data set covering more than hundred countries from 1991 to the present confirms that the theory still holds: a positive correlation between the excess growth rate of the stock of money and the rate of inflation cannot be rejected. Yet, while the correlation holds for the whole sample, proportionality is driven by a small number of influential observations with very high inflation

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 08-196.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-196

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Related research
Keywords: Quantity theory of money; demand for money; monetary targeting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1990. "Inflation: Theory and evidence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 963-1012 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2003. "How Robust are Money Demand Estimations? A Meta-Analytic Approach," Working Papers 81, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  3. von Hagen, Jurgen, 1999. "Money growth targeting by the Bundesbank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 681-701, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Sean Collins & Clive Thorp & Bruce White, 1999. "Defining money and credit aggregates: theory meets practice," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, June. [Downloadable!]
  5. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Does Money Matter in the ECB Strategy? New Evidence Based on ECB Communication," KOF Working papers 06-125, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Dalziel, Paul, 2000. " On the Evolution of Money and Its Implications for Price Stability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 373-93, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Annick Bruggeman & Paola Donati & Anders Warne, 2003. "Is the demand for Euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Alessandro Calza & João Sousa, 2003. "Why has broad money demand been more stable in the Euro area than in other economies? A literature review," Working Paper Series 261, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Schwartz, Anna J, 1973. "Secular Price Change in Historical Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 243-69, Part II F. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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