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Do I Have What It Takes? Equilibrium Search with Type Uncertainty and Non-Participation

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Author Info
Armin Falk () (IZA, University of Bonn and CEPR)
David Huffman () (IZA)
Uwe Sunde () (IZA, University of Bonn and CEPR)

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Abstract

This paper presents a model of the labor market in which unemployed workers are uncertain about their relative ability to find a job. Unsuccessful search induces individuals to revise their beliefs downwards. Once self-confidence is sufficiently low, workers become discouraged and give up on search. This non-stationarity gives rise to structural flows from unemployment to non-participation in equilibrium. In contrast, existing models typically maintain stationarity and appeal to exogenous stochastic shocks to generate transitions from unemployment to non-participation. Our model is based on relaxing a single assumption in a standard matching framework - workers are uncertain about their job finding probability - and yet the model generates a variety of important implications. Our alternative assumption is supported by experimental evidence. The first implication of the model is a declining hazard from unemployment to employment, arising due to erosion of self-confidence in search. Second, because search outcomes are only a noisy signal about ability, some individuals can become overly discouraged and stop search too early due to wrong beliefs. Finally, workers with greater unemployment duration are less confident, and thus have a worse threat point in wage bargaining. Consequentially, they earn lower starting wages even if they are identical in terms of objective productivity. We discuss how the model provides a new, unifying explanation for a variety of important facts from field evidence.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2531.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2531

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Related research
Keywords: learning; discouraged workers; subjective job finding probabilities;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2006. "Self-Confidence and Search," IZA Discussion Papers 2525, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Morgan, Peter B, 1985. "Distributions of the Duration and Value of Job Search with Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1199-1232, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frijters, Paul & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2003. "Job Search with Nonparticipation," CEPR Discussion Papers 3922, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dale T. Mortensen & Éva Nagypál, 2005. "More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations," IZA Discussion Papers 1765, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Calmfors, Lars & Lang, Harald, 1995. "Macroeconomic Effects of Active Labour Market Programmes in a Union Wage-Setting Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 601-19, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Johannesson, Magnus, 2003. "A note on the effect of unemployment on mortality," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 505-518, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Flam, S.D. & Risa, A.E., 2001. "Ability, Self-confidence and Search," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 1601, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    Other versions:
  8. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Pietro Garibaldi & Etienne Wasmer, 2005. "Equilibrium Search Unemployment, Endogenous Participation, And Labor Market Flows," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 851-882, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. Burdett, Kenneth & Vishwanath, Tara, 1988. "Declining Reservation Wages and Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 655-65, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Coles, Melvyn G. & Muthoo, Abhinay, 2003. "Bargaining in a non-stationary environment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 70-89, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sattinger, Michael, 1995. "General Equilibrium Effects of Unemployment Compensation with Labor Force Participation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 623-52, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Blau, David M & Robins, Philip K, 1986. "Labor Supply Response to Welfare Programs: A Dynamic Analysis," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(1), pages 82-104, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Bowlus, Audra J, 1997. "A Search Interpretation of Male-Female Wage Differentials," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(4), pages 625-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Giuseppe Moscarini, 2005. "Job Matching and the Wage Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(2), pages 481-516, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Winkelmann, Liliana & Winkelmann, Rainer, 1998. "Why Are the Unemployed So Unhappy? Evidence from Panel Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael Rosholm & Ott Toomet, 2005. "A Search Model of Discouragement," IZA Discussion Papers 1633, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  20. Rose McElhattan, 1980. "Should discouraged workers be counted in the labor force? a job-search approach," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Win, pages 7-24. [Downloadable!]
  21. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1999. "The Measurement of Unemployment: An Empirical Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 147-162, January.
    Other versions:
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