The Role Of Commodity Terms Of Trade In Determining The Real Exchange Rates Of Mediterranean Countries
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate whether there exists a long run relationship between the real exchange rate and the commodity terms of trade in the so-called ¿Mediterranean¿ or MENA countries. These economies are good candidates for this type of formulation, as they can be considered commodity exporting countries. Using cointegration techniques, we find long run relationships linking the real exchange rate and a commodity-based measure of the terms of trade. Thus, commodity terms of trade are a potential explanation for the apparent non-stationarity of MENA countries real exchange rate previously found in the empirical literature.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2007-15.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
género; consejo de administración; valor de la empresa; endogeneidad real exchange rate; terms of trade; commodity prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-08-08 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994.
"Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-19, June.
- David W.R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1991. "Australia’s Real Exchange Rate – Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9108, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998.
"Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
- Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA.
- Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995.
"Exchange Rates and Oil Prices,"
- Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002.
"The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?,"
European Economy Group Working Papers
16, European Economy Group.
- McNown, Robert & S. Wallace, Myles, 1989. "National price levels, purchasing power parity, and cointegration: a test of four high inflation economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 533-545, December.
- Connolly, Michael & Devereux, John, 1992. "Commercial Policy, the Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rates," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 507-12, July.
- Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Dungey, Mardi, 2004. "Identifying terms of trade effects in real exchange rate movements: evidence from Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 217-235, April.
- Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
- Evans, Martin D. D. & Lothian, James R., 1993.
"The response of exchange rates to permanent and transitory shocks under floating exchange rates,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 563-586, December.
- Martin D. Evans & James R. Lothian, 1992. "The Response of Exchange Rates to Permanent and Transitory Shocks under Floating Exchange Rates," Working Papers 92-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Mussa, M.L., 1990. "Exchange Rates in Theory and in Reality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 179, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Meese, Richard, 1990. "Currency Fluctuations in the Post-Bretton Woods Era," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 117-34, Winter.
- Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994.
"Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Gonzalo, Jesús, . "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/731, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002.
"Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, 06.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0561, Econometric Society.
- Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Neary, Peter, 1988.
"Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-15, March.
- Neary, J Peter, 1987. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2006. "The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar," Working Papers 06-29, Bank of Canada.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Departamento de Edición).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.