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The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food−Fuel Trade-Offs?

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  • Fabiosa, Jacinto F.
  • Beghin, John C.
  • Dong, Fengxia
  • Elobeid, Amani
  • Tokgoz, Simla
  • Yu, Tun-Hsiang

Abstract

We summarize a large set of recent simulations and policy analyses based on FAPRI’s world multimarket, partial-equilibrium models. We first quantify and project the emergence of biofuel markets in US and world agriculture for the coming decade. Then, we perturb the models with incremental shocks in US and world ethanol consumption in deviation from this projected emergence to assess their effects on world agricultural and food markets. Various food-biofuel trade-offs are quantified and examined. Increases in food prices are moderate for the US ethanol expansion and even smaller for the ethanol expansion outside the United States, which is based on sugarcane feedstock, which has little feedback on other markets. With the US expansion, the high protection in the US ethanol market limits potential adjustments in the world ethanol markets and increases the demand for feedstock within the United States. Changes in US grain and oilseed market prices propagate to world markets, as the United States is a large exporter in these markets. With changes in world prices, land allocation in the rest of the world responds to the new relative prices as in the United States but with smaller magnitudes because price transmission to local markets is less than full.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p11603-2010-06-04.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 31603.

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Date of creation: 04 Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:31603

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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Keywords: ethanol; biofuel; land effects; food prices; trade-offs;

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  1. Amani Elobeid & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-wp356, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  2. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
  3. Abler, David & Beghin, John C. & Blandford, David & Elobeid, Amani, 2008. "Changing the U.S. Sugar Program into a Standard Crop Program: Consequences Under NAFTA and Doha," Staff General Research Papers, Iowa State University, Department of Economics 12764, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007. "Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-sr101, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  5. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart, 2008. "Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agricultural Sectors," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 604-622.
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