IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/irs/cepswp/2023-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The long-run earnings effects of winning a mayoral election

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Bertoni
  • Giorgio Brunello
  • Lorenzo Cappellari
  • Maria De Paola

Abstract

We estimate the effect of winning a mayoral election on long-run licit earnings, which plays a key role in the selection of local political leaders. We use Italian administrative social security data from 1995 to 2017 and a sharp regression discontinuity design based on close elections. Over a 15-year horizon, the average present discounted value of winning an election is equal to 35,000€, or 85 percent of the annual labor and social security earnings for the average candidate in our sample, a modest effect driven by the compensations for political service and concentrated during the first five years after the election. Net of compensations for service, this effect is negative during the first ten years after the election, and almost fades away afterwards. Differences in the political careers of winners and runners-up and a two-term limit rule on mayors’ office contribute to explain our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bertoni & Giorgio Brunello & Lorenzo Cappellari & Maria De Paola, 2023. "The long-run earnings effects of winning a mayoral election," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-02, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    • Handle: RePEc:irs:cepswp:2023-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://liser.elsevierpure.com/en/publications/the-long-run-earnings-effects-of-winning-a-mayoral-election
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefano Gagliarducci & Marco Manacorda, 2020. "Politics in the Family: Nepotism and the Hiring Decisions of Italian Firms," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 67-95, April.
    2. Mattia Guerini, 2013. "Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def003, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. repec:ctc:serie1:def0009 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    5. Sobbrio, Francesco, 2014. "Citizen-editors' endogenous information acquisition and news accuracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 43-53.
    6. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? A Cross-Country Analysis of Gender Gaps," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 621-654, October.
    7. repec:ctc:serie1:def3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    9. Federico Cingano & Paolo Pinotti, 2013. "Politicians At Work: The Private Returns And Social Costs Of Political Connections," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 433-465, April.
    10. Querubin, Pablo & Snyder, James M., 2013. "The Control of Politicians in Normal Times and Times of Crisis: Wealth Accumulation by U.S. Congressmen, 1850–1880," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 409-450, October.
    11. repec:ctc:serie1:def9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Raymond Fisman & Florian Schulz & Vikrant Vig, 2014. "The Private Returns to Public Office," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(4), pages 806-862.
    13. Ferraz, Claudio & Finan, Frederico S., 2008. "Motivating Politicians: The Impacts of Monetary Incentives on Quality and Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 3411, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. repec:ctc:serie1:def2 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari, 2019. "Correlation of Brothers' Earnings and Intergenerational Transmission," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 370-383, May.
    16. Ufuk Akcigit & Salomé Baslandze & Francesca Lotti, 2023. "Connecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 529-564, March.
    17. Cingano, Federico & Palomba, Filippo & Pinotti, Paolo & Rettore, Enrico, 2022. "Making Subsidies Work: Rules vs. Discretion," IZA Discussion Papers 15172, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Daniela Parisi, 2014. "Is There Room for 'Fear' as a Human Passion in the Work by Adam Smith?," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def008, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    19. Massimo Bordignon & Matteo Gamalerio & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "Decentralization, Vertical Fiscal Imbalance, and Political Selection," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def002, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    20. Jordi Blanes i Vidal & Mirko Draca & Christian Fons-Rosen, 2012. "Revolving Door Lobbyists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3731-3748, December.
    21. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Do Better Paid Politicians Perform Better? Disentangling Incentives From Selection," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 369-398, April.
    22. Di Tella, Rafael & Fisman, Raymond, 2004. "Are Politicians Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 477-513, October.
    23. repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:ctc:serie1:def0002 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Alberto Alesina & Matteo Paradisi, 2017. "Political budget cycles: Evidence from Italian cities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 157-177, July.
    26. Berg, Heléne, 2020. "Politicians’ payments in a proportional party system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    27. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan & Olle Folke & Torsten Persson & Johanna Rickne, 2017. "Who Becomes A Politician?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1877-1914.
    28. repec:ctc:serie1:def6 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Ernesto Dal Bó & Frederico Finan, 2018. "Progress and Perspectives in the Study of Political Selection," NBER Working Papers 24783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. repec:ctc:serie1:def0004 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Timothy Besley, 2004. "Joseph Schumpeter Lecture: Paying Politicians: Theory and Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 193-215, 04/05.
    32. repec:ctc:serie1:def4 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Kaisa Kotakorpi & Panu Poutvaara & Marko Terviö, 2017. "Returns to Office in National and Local Politics: A Bootstrap Method and Evidence from Finland," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 413-442.
    34. repec:ctc:serie1:def0006 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Eggers, Andrew C. & Hainmueller, Jens, 2009. "MPs for Sale? Returns to Office in Postwar British Politics," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(4), pages 513-533, November.
    36. Elenka Brenna & Federico Spandonaro, 2014. "Does federalism induce patients’ mobility across regions? Evidence from the Italian experience," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def009, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    37. repec:ctc:serie1:def0003 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. repec:ctc:serie1:def0008 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. repec:ctc:serie1:def0005 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Ponzo, Michela & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2010. "The use of informal networks in Italy: Efficiency or favoritism?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 89-99, January.
    41. Berg, Heléne, 2020. "On the returns to holding political office (Is it worth it?)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 840-865.
    42. Joshua D. Angrist & Miikka Rokkanen, 2015. "Wanna Get Away? Regression Discontinuity Estimation of Exam School Effects Away From the Cutoff," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(512), pages 1331-1344, December.
    43. repec:ctc:serie1:def0007 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Elenka Brenna & Cinzia Di Novi, 2013. "Is caring for elderly parents detrimental to women’s mental health? The influence of the European North-South gradient," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def004, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    45. Gagliarducci, Stefano & Nannicini, Tommaso & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2010. "Moonlighting politicians," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 688-699, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berg, Heléne, 2020. "Politicians’ payments in a proportional party system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Björn Kauder & Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Electoral cycles in MPs’ salaries: evidence from the German states," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 981-1000, August.
    3. Heléne Berg, 2018. "Politicians' Payments in a Proportional Party System," CESifo Working Paper Series 7278, CESifo.
    4. Berg, Heléne, 2020. "On the returns to holding political office (Is it worth it?)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 840-865.
    5. Berg, Helene, 2018. "Politicians’ Payments in a Proportional Party System," Research Papers in Economics 2018:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    6. Kaisa Kotakorpi & Panu Poutvaara & Marko Tervio, 2013. "Returns to office in national and local politics," Discussion Papers 86, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    7. Diogo Britto, 2016. "Unemployment Insurance and the Duration of Employment: Theory and Evidence from a Regression Kink Design," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def048, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Berg, Heléne, 2018. "Is It Worth It? On the Returns to Holding Political Office," Research Papers in Economics 2018:5, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    9. Heléne Berg, 2018. "Is It Worth It? On the Returns to Holding Political Office," CESifo Working Paper Series 7406, CESifo.
    10. Palguta, Ján & Pertold, Filip, 2021. "Political salaries, electoral selection and the incumbency advantage: Evidence from a wage reform," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1020-1047.
    11. Marco Ovidi, 2022. "Parents Know Better: Sorting on Match Effects in Primary School," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def121, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    12. Francesco Andreoli & Eugenio Peluso, 2016. "So close yet so unequal: Reconsidering spatial inequality in U.S. cities," Working Papers 21/2016, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    13. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "The impact of ECBs conventional and unconventional monetary policies on European banking indexes returns," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def059, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    14. Elenka Brenna & Lara Gitto, 2018. "Adult education, the use of Information and Communication Technologies and the impact on quality of life: a case study," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def073, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    15. repec:ctc:serie1:def11 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    17. Rosario Crino & Giovanni Immordino & Gülen Karakoç-Palminteri & Salvatore Piccolo, 2018. "Fighting Mobile Crime," CSEF Working Papers 504, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    18. Auerbach, Jan, 2022. "Productive Office and Political Elitism," MPRA Paper 114582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1126, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    20. Rosario Crinò & Laura Ogliari, 2015. "Financial Frictions, Product Quality, and International Trade," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def030, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    21. Boitani, Andrea & Punzo, Chiara, 2019. "Banks’ leverage behaviour in a two-agent new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 347-359.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    returns to office; political selection; revolving door; rent-seeking; close elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J44 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Professional Labor Markets and Occupations
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irs:cepswp:2023-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library and Documentation (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepsslu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.