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Monetary policy decisions by the world's central banks using real-time data

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  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
  • Francisco Muñoz

Abstract

This paper contributes to the empirical understanding of monetary policy in five dimensions. First, specifiying a generalized Taylor equation that nests backward and forward-looking inflation and activity variables in setting policy rates. Second, using real-time data. Third, estimating the model on a world panel of monthly 1994-2011 data for 28 advanced and emerging economies. Fourth, using alternative panel data estimators to test for robustness. Fifth, testing for differences in monetary policy over time and across country groups. The findings are very supportive of the nested model and generally show that the Taylor principle is satisfied by the world's central banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 426.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:426

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Keywords: monetary policy; Taylor rule; Taylor principle; heterogeneous panels;

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  1. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  3. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Molodtsova, Tanya & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Papell, David H., 2008. "Taylor rules with real-time data: A tale of two countries and one exchange rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S63-S79, October.
  5. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," Caepr Working Papers 2006-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  7. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers & Hubert Strauss, . "Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?," Discussion Papers 11/22, University of Nottingham, GEP.
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  9. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  10. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
  11. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Productivity Analysis in Global Manufacturing Production," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_019, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  12. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  13. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  14. Brian Sack & Volker Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Pier Francesco Asso & George A. Kahn & Robert Leeson, 2010. "The Taylor rule and the practice of central banking," Research Working Paper RWP 10-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  16. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
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