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Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies in the Global Economy

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  • César Calderón
  • Roberto Duncan
  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel.

Abstract

Sharp fluctuations in cyclical conditions observed in industrial and developing countries alike have renewed the debate on the scope and the effectiveness of stabilization policies. Traditionally it has been argued that developing countries are unable to adopt counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies due to financial imperfections and unfavorable political-economy conditions. We claim that developing countries with institutional features similar to those of industrial countries are able to conduct counter-cyclical policies. Using a world sample of 115 industrial and developing countries for 1984-2008, we find that the level of institutional quality plays a key role in countriesÂ’ ability to implement counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. The results show that countries with strong (weak) institutions adopt counter- (pro-) cyclical macroeconomic policies, reflected in extended monetary policy and fiscal policy rules. The threshold level of institutional quality at which macroeconomic policy is neutral to the business cycle is higher for fiscal policy than for monetary policy. The sensitivity of fiscal policy cyclicality to institutional quality is larger than is the case of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 372.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:372

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Keywords: Counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies; institutions; fiscal policy; monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ricardo Caballero G, 2002. "Coping With Chile’s External Vulnerability: A Financial Problem," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(1), pages 11-36, April.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, 09.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2003. "Macroeconomic Policies and Performance in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 217, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  7. Jagjit S. Chadha & Charles Nolan, 2004. "Optimal Simple Rules for the Conduct of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," CDMA Working Paper Series 200406, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2006. "Rent seeing distortions and fiscal procyclicality," MPRA Paper 8726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2007.
  10. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  11. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
  12. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  14. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," NBER Working Papers 16945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
  4. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2012. "Fiscal Institutions in Resource-Rich Economies: Lessons from Chile and Norway," Documentos de Trabajo 416, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  5. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2010. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Policies, and Outcomes in the World," Documentos de Trabajo 386, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  6. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2012. "Fiscal Policy for Commodity Exporting Countries: Chile's Experience," Documentos de Trabajo 415, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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