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Bank-Lending Standards, Loan Growth and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area

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  • Sylvia Kaufmann

    ()

  • Johann Scharler

    ()

Abstract

We study the relationship between bank lending standards, loan growth and the business cycle in the euro area and the US within a vector error correciton model using Bayesian estimation methods. To deal with the short data series available for the euro area, we exploit information from the estimated US system to improve the estimation of the euro area system. We find that tighter bank lending standards are associated with lower loan growth as well as lower output growth in both areas. Differences in reactions appear in the strength and the persistence of responses.

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File URL: http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2013-34.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck in its series Working Papers with number 2013-34.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-34

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Keywords: Bank Lending Standards; Bayesian Cointegration Analysis;

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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
  3. Villani, Mattias, 2006. "Bayesian point estimation of the cointegration space," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 645-664, October.
  4. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
  5. Koop, Gary & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1995. "Bayesian long-run prediction in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 61-80, September.
  6. Gary Koop & Roberto León-González & Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Efficient Posterior Simulation for Cointegrated Models with Priors On the Cointegration Space," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/13, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Apr 2006.
  7. Strachan, Rodney W. & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of the error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 307-325, December.
  8. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2006. "Bayesian Inference in a Cointegrating Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 06/2, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  9. Chikuse, Yasuko, 1990. "The matrix angular central Gaussian distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 265-274, May.
  10. Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2013. "Monetary policy, macroprudential policy and banking stability: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 1560, European Central Bank.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 950, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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