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Efficient Posterior Simulation for Cointegrated Models with Priors on the Cointegration Space

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Author Info

  • Gary Koop
  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez
  • Rodney Strachan

Abstract

A message coming out of the recent Bayesian literature on cointegration is that it is important to elicit a prior on the space spanned by the cointegrating vectors (as opposed to a particular identified choice for these vectors). In previous work, such priors have been found to greatly complicate computation. In this article, we develop algorithms to carry out efficient posterior simulation in cointegration models. In particular, we develop a collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm which can be used with just-identifed models and demonstrate that it has very large computational advantages relative to existing approaches. For over-identifed models, we develop a parameter-augmented Gibbs sampling algorithm and demonstrate that it also has attractive computational properties.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 224-242

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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:29:y:2010:i:2:p:224-242

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Related research

Keywords: Bayesian; Collapsed Gibbs sampler; Error correction model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Parameter-augmentation; Reduced rank regression;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop, 2011. "Regime-Switching Cointegration," Working Papers 1125, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  2. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2011. "Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model," Working Papers 1112, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  3. Krzysztof Osiewalski & Jacek Osiewalski, 2013. "A Long-Run Relationship between Daily Prices on Two Markets: The Bayesian VAR(2)–MSF-SBEKK Model," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 5(1), pages 65-83, March.
  4. Tsay, Ruey S. & Ando, Tomohiro, 2012. "Bayesian panel data analysis for exploring the impact of subprime financial crisis on the US stock market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3345-3365.
  5. Justyna Wróblewska, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of Weak Form Reduced Rank Structure in VEC Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(3), pages 169-186, September.
  6. Heather M Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/10, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Justyna Wróblewska, 2012. "Bayesian Analysis of Weak Form Polynomial Reduced Rank Structures in VEC Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 4(4), pages 253-267, December.
  8. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
  9. Sylvia Kaufmann & Johann Scharler, 2013. "Bank-Lending Standards, Loan Growth and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2013-34, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.

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