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Bayesian Model Selection in the Analysis of Cointegration

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  • Justyna Wróblewska

    ()
    (Cracow University of Economics)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we present the Bayesian model selection procedure within the class of cointegrated processes. In order to make inference about the cointegration space we use the class of Matrix Angular Central Gaussian distributions. To carry out posterior simulations we use an alorithm based on the collapsed Gibbs sampler. The presented methods are applied to the analysis of the price - wage mechanism in the Polish economy.

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    File URL: http://cejeme.org/publishedarticles/2009-40-31-633740820376533955-2684.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by CEJEME in its journal Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 57-69

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    Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:57-69

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    Web page: http://cejeme.org/

    Related research

    Keywords: cointegration; Bayesian analysis; Grassmann manifold; Stiefel manifold; posterior probability;

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    References

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    1. Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Economics Series Working Papers 99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Urbain, J-P., 1991. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Papers 9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
    3. Welfe, Aleksander & Majsterek, Michal, 2002. " Wage and Price Inflation in Poland in the Period of Transition: The Cointegration Analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 205-19.
    4. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Re-Examining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 341-367, 03.
    5. Chikuse, Yasuko, 1990. "The matrix angular central Gaussian distribution," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 265-274, May.
    6. Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated I (2) Systems: a Generalisation of the Triangular Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/14, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    7. Rodney Strachan & Herman K. van Dijk, . "Bayesian Model Averaging in Vector Autoregressive Processes with an Investigation of Stability of the US Great Ratios and Risk of a Liquidity Trap in the USA, UK and Japan," MRG Discussion Paper Series 1407, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Osiewalski, Jacek & Welfe, Aleksander, 1998. "The price-wage mechanism: An endogenous switching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 365-374, February.
    9. Strachan, Rodney W. & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Bayesian analysis of the error correction model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 307-325, December.
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