IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2019-207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques
  • Qianying Chen
  • Claudio Raddatz
  • Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche
  • Peichu Xie

Abstract

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis Brandão-Marques & Qianying Chen & Claudio Raddatz & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Peichu Xie, 2019. "The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 2019/207, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=48670
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Divya Kirti, 2018. "Lending Standards and Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/023, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Hyman P. Minsky, 1977. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis: An Interpretation of Keynes and an Alternative to“Standard” Theory," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 20-27, March.
    3. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2019. "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3366-3411.
    4. Aysun Alp, 2013. "Structural Shifts in Credit Rating Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2435-2470, December.
    5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Shin‐ichi Fukuda & Jun‐ichi Nakamura, 2011. "Why Did ‘Zombie’ Firms Recover in Japan?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1124-1137, July.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    8. David López-Salido & Jeremy C. Stein & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1373-1426.
    9. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    11. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    13. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    15. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    16. Òscar Jordà & Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2021. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 260-286.
    17. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    18. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    19. João F Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica A Wachter, 2019. "Cyclical Dispersion in Expected Defaults," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 1275-1308.
    20. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    21. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    22. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    23. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    24. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October.
    25. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    26. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    27. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    28. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven & Hui Tong, 2016. "Credit booms and macrofinancial stability," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(86), pages 299-355.
    29. Lang, William W. & Nakamura, Leonard I., 1995. "'Flight to quality' in banking and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 145-164, August.
    30. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    31. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    32. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Peichu Xie, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," IMF Working Papers 2020/101, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2020. "Cross-Border Regulatory Spillovers and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," Working Papers 202028, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    3. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Francesco Franceschi & Stéphane Riederer, 2022. "Borrower vulnerabilities, their distribution and credit losses," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    4. Lucyna Gornicka & Peichu Xie, 2021. "Leakages from Macroprudential Regulations: The Case of Household-Specific Tools and Corporate Credit," IMF Working Papers 2021/113, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    6. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Bank for International Settlements, 2022. "Private sector debt and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 67, december.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 58-74.
    5. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    6. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
    7. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    8. Christopher Hansman & Harrison Hong & Wenxi Jiang & Yu-Jane Liu & Juan-Juan Meng, 2018. "Effects of Credit Expansions on Stock Market Booms and Busts," NBER Working Papers 24586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    10. Jeremy C. Stein, 2021. "Can Policy Tame the Credit Cycle?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 5-22, March.
    11. Pablo Pastory y Camarasa & Martien Lamers, 2023. "Do Actions Follow Words? How bank sentiment predicts credit growth," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1073, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Avdjiev, Stefan & Binder, Stephan & Sousa, Ricardo, 2021. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Alter, Adrian & Elekdag, Selim, 2020. "Emerging market corporate leverage and global financial conditions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Daniel O. Beltran & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Fiona A. Paine, 2021. "Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs," International Finance Discussion Papers 1307, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    16. Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Economic resilience: The usefulness of early warning indicators in OECD countries," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 9-35.
    17. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    18. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2021. "Commodity prices and banking crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Audit, Dooneshsingh & Alam, Nafis, 2022. "Why have credit variables taken centre stage in predicting systemic banking crises?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    20. Alan M. Taylor, 2015. "Credit, Financial Stability, and the Macroeconomy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 309-339, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.